The Last Economic Stride

Author: Dr Hasnain Javed

The year 2023 is upon us. As we look back at 2022, a plethora of problems stare us back in the face with no solution in sight. Further, we are hit by news headlines highlighting the economic challenges left by the floods, the horrid effects of overpopulation, the rising employment, stalled economic projects and more. Therefore, this article will only focus on the solution to many challenges that need to be immediately implemented.

Often, we are told that Pakistan is a country with scarce resources. This is a statement that I disagree with. Our biggest challenge over the last 75 years has been the poor understanding of population and resource challenges and the inefficient allocation of resources that has ultimately led to low literacy, lack of employment, no better facilities for food and shelter and adverse health facilities. Transparency International Pakistan (TIP), in its National Corruption Perception Survey (NCPS) 2022, identified the education sector as the fourth most corrupt in the country. There is no surprise that we have failed to identify or even implement plausible economic solutions. Allocational Efficiency, a very bookish economic term, is a real solution to the “scarce resources.” Firstly, I believe that economic pundits, along with governmental representatives and the business community, must decide the best possible allocation of resources. Secondly, the government must make technocracy and meritocracy a priority and embed them in its very DNA, if are to succeed.

“Default or No Default” has been another ongoing debate capturing mass attention not only in Pakistan but internationally, where our enemies await the ultimate economic demise of the country. However, instead of making headlines to win the media war, we must acknowledge that Pakistan has always relied upon foreign aid and international loans. Also, Pakistan never could pay its external debts and liabilities and has fallen back on rollovers or, unfortunately, more debts. The foremost solution to our depleting foreign reserves is a sensible export-focused economic vision. Pakistan must without a delay needs to support its industry, focus on the SMEs, and shift the public’s focus from a consumer-based economy to one where we can strengthen entrepreneurial ventures. The second part of the solution is increasing the tax net of the country, by hook or crook – the government must bring the thousands of undocumented businesses under its tax net. The very nature of the regressive income taxation system in the country amidst the corruption, weak judicial system and a dominating anti-nationalistic attitude are all part of the challenge that hinders any major progress towards a reformative perspective. As per expert studies, the tax-to-GDP ratio in emerging market nations is approximately 16 per cent, however, in Pakistan, it is 8.6 per cent.

Privatisation – a word our bureaucratic and governmental representatives seem to be extremely scared of. According to the World Bank, the total liabilities of persistently loss-making SOEs, which are public sector businesses that have sustained a loss in three of the preceding five years, exceed eight per cent of GDP. Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), Pakistan Railways, power suppliers, and the National Highway Authority are among the top ten annual losers. Since its independence, the massive fall in Pakistan’s bureaucracy has resulted in numerous economic issues that continue to dominate economic progress and stability. I believe it is time, that the Government of Pakistan must privatise at least 85 per cent of the loss-making SOEs to stop the financial leakages. However, the process must ensure transparency and protect the national interests above all.

Pakistan should exploit its advantageous location through connectivity and economic integration with other members of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program, which can help unify regional standards and boost cross-border trade.

Pakistan may realise its potential to become a regional economic powerhouse by building economic corridors, which can serve as fertile ground for investments, opportunities, and the development of jobs.

Slightly moving away from the economic solutions, in the end, I would like to pen down one political resolution. However, it must be ensured at the party level but converted into a national movement in the awareness of the election manifesto. The Election Commission of Pakistan while supervising the election process, must follow a US election-based-campaign style where debates must be held over the matters of education, poverty, governance, employment, infrastructure and more. As it is said, an aware nation is the first step towards social, economic and political reformation and justice.

The writer is the Foreign Secretary-General for BRI College, China. He tweets @DrHasnain_javed

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