Daily Times

It is unfortunate that peace and prosperity have evaded us. The reasons might be many and people may have their own interpretations. Many policies, methods and machinations have been tried but still Pakistan is finding it difficult to attain a desirable level of peace and prosperity. The rise of a nation is a consequence of variables like liberty, initiative, truth and imagination. The reasons for decline are many but foremost is internal strife that leads to political, economic and social instability. Long years of sectarian militancy have generated an atmosphere of strife and mistrust in the country, adversely impacting growth variables. When will we be able to come out of the chaos created by the mujahideen and have peace and prosperity return?
Speaking recently at the West Point Military Academy, President Obama stated that, since World War II, some of the costly mistakes came not from restraint, but from the US willing to rush into military adventures, without thinking through the consequences. Obvious references are to the more recent adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Pakistan’s involvement in the Soviet-Afghan war in 1979 can be called a costly mistake for Pakistan, leaving behind many undesirable consequences. One of the major fallouts is the ever-persistent state of militancy. There does not appear to be too bright a prospect for an early settlement of these consequences; rather, the problems created are increasing with time. One such instance is the failure of the peace negotiations, initiated earlier this year by the government, with the Taliban. The process ceased because of the unreasonable demands of the militant organisation. Moreover, these negotiations were with an amorphous and a faceless enemy that has always remained difficult to trace. The intransient attitude of the militants and terror attacks, like the one at Karachi airport, were responsible for the launching of an operation in North Waziristan. Nobody will be happy about the casualties but the state now has limited options. The army operation shows the resolve to restore the writ of the government.
The Afghan war in 1979 changed the complexion of the tribal areas in many ways; the respect for tribal culture and the tribal rivaj (customs) received a setback. Mujahedeen recruitment cut through tribal lines and many foreigners arrived here to participate in the insurgency against the Soviet Union. The once settled tribal areas became the habitats of militants, challenging the established social order and the writ of the government. The time honoured policy of masterly inactivity (a policy reminiscent of Bismarck) gradually deteriorated into a policy of appeasement, necessitated by the ever growing number of militants finding their abode in the tribal areas. Many a government in Pakistan, themselves insecure and uncertain of their tenures, had no option other than appeasement of the militants that, at times, meant surrender of their writ. This resulted in chaos and a demographic shift outwards from the tribal areas, leading to simmering ethnic tensions in many places, especially Karachi. There does not appear to be an end to the sufferings or insecurity faced by the population of Karachi and also the tribal areas. Unfortunately there are not very many solutions to the law and order problems in Karachi. It appears that peace is too far away.
The Taliban and their foreign associates remained insensitive to the sufferings caused to the people of the tribal areas due to a state of militancy. They also had not realised the amount of suffering their own tribes would be facing due to an operation in North Waziristan. The residents of the tribal areas will continue to suffer for a long time to come because of the physical dislocation and psychological problems generated by fear, insecurity and leaving their homes in such fearful haste. Homeless, living in camps, exposed to insecurity, fear, lack of educational and sports facilities, the psychological profile of a major segment of such children will not be conducive to the prospects of a healthy population. Dr Pia Britto, the senior adviser on early childhood development at UN headquarters, in a paper for the UN on ‘Brain Development in Children: The impact of Adversity’, has written that, 80 percent of our brain develops in the first five years of a child’s life. Numerous risk factors, such as poor nutrition and exposure to violence, can impact a child’s brain development. It is early life experiences that determine the capacity of the brain.
The risk factors that determine the child’s brain development mentioned in the UN article are quite relevant to the children in the strife affected tribal area population and the IDP camps. These children, one day, as adults will enter mainstream life with these acquired psychological problems. Such unfortunate fellow citizens might suffer for no fault of their own, their own progress in life and contribution to society might be less than optimal. This can cause friction in society.
An unstable Afghanistan will certainly retard the prospect of peace and prosperity in Pakistan. Recently, the Taliban and the Haqqani network have managed a noticeable presence in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Afghan National Security Forces do not inspire much confidence and lack a credible fighting apparatus to counter a fierce Taliban insurgency. The Afghan forces face irresolute issues of finances and discipline, and the situation is likely to further deteriorate as the NATO and US combat mission ends in December 2014. The world has already witnessed, in June this year, how fighters from ISIS forced the US equipped Iraqi army to withdraw and disintegrate. Among other factors, the Iraqi army lacked leadership and the logistics to be sustained in a battlefield. The news of Afghanistan’s law and order, of late, are not very encouraging. A deteriorating law and order situation in Afghanistan can create difficulties for Pakistan in the times ahead. This will further dampen our quest for peace and prosperity.
All these years of insurgency have weakened the economy through a deteriorating law order situation. The government has to borrow ever-larger amounts for budgetary support and there is little fiscal space for initiating any social reforms or meaningful social safety nets. For many years to come the country will be diverting precious resources for containment of terrorism and violence. The militants are fairly well organised and come from different social backgrounds making them difficult to trace and uproot.
Over the years there have been no serious attempts at making the administrative structure responsive to the rapidly growing urban population and problems arising out of a continuing state of insurgency. The administrative structure was well suited for an agrarian society. A changed atmosphere requires more responsive administrative machinery especially for the difficult times we are passing through.
Uninterrupted economic development will be just the beginning of the long road to peace and prosperity, an essential ingredient for overcoming the psyche of fear that has gripped this nation owing to decades of strife and turmoil. These are the stages, supported by history, societies have to go through for some stability and prosperity. There are no short cuts to this process of development of a society. It can be presumed that it will be many long years before the citizen feels that his rights are well protected, that the state institutions are for facilitating his progress in life, that the police are responsive to his call, and not just on the scene to harass and argue, unnecessarily and endlessly. The state of militancy, inadequate economic growth and fear ruling our psyche are the unfortunate facts of our lives that are becoming more difficult to override, making peace and prosperity seem like far away possibilities.

The writer is a former inspector general
of the police. He can be reached
at humayunshafi@gmail.com