Daily Times

The stormclouds are brewing once more. The monsoon season is about to start and it brings with it the promise of exciting developments. But will it rain on the 14th? Rains have the distinctive characteristic of stirring hitherto lifeless beings into anticipative action, political or otherwise. And so, first we had the Canadian shouting himself hoarse about revolution proper. Then the one-who-did-not-win realised that 2018 is a long, long time from now, so he forgot about playing opposition and put his foot on the throttle. And then there is a bandwagon full of the have-beens and the could-not-have-beens: the Sheikhs, the Chaudhrys and personnel from previous setups, chipping in their opinions about the machinations of the PML-N, all trying to force the government’s hand to announce midterm elections.
The government, in turn, has not shown much confidence in its colossal mandate and it can only blame itself for this. They have the air of dishonest men around them, in constant fear of being caught with their hands in the cookie jar. They jump ominously at the slightest mention of change, interpreting every fringe opposing action as threats of mutiny and revolt. The only thing they have working for them so far is that the last people in their position had a worse governance record. And in true N-League fashion, they have already tried to pacify us with more knee-jerk infrastructure projects that one can count on the fingertips, whilst failing on one of their biggest promises: electricity.
Even though things have quietened down a bit through rapprochement between the warring factions, it cannot be denied that all this has the aura of some unfathomable conspiracy. But what is the ploy here? Here is a forecast for August 14: cloudy with no chances of revolution. This is not as much the calm before the storm as it is the perpetual limbo we are stuck in. Make no mistake: we Pakistanis love ourselves some conspiracies but regime change on the 14th is a bit of an overkill, even by our standards. Instead, a drawn-out confrontation between the government and the opposition is much more likely.
There will not be any change because the alternatives to the current setup are not in place yet, and the ones in opposition are all too aware of it. They can have the savviest media campaigns but without enough actual political support, cries of change will not benefit the opposition one bit. Moreover, running a country is tough business, and no one outside the system is quite ready for such a responsibility yet. Also, if by some miracle, elections are held right now, the current setup will pretty much return to power, give or take a dozen or so seats in the National and provincial Assemblies. More importantly, the lynchpin province Punjab will not see a change in its halls of power. Sensing this, the ones in opposition will have to settle for death by a thousand cuts instead of an all-out blitzkrieg.
But why will there be no change, you may ask. The answer lies in the fundamental nature of how the political system works in Pakistan. Analysts sometimes take too modern a view of the polling masses; we see them through lenses tinted with liberal ideas, whereas ground political realities in Pakistan are starkly different. To a lot of the Pakistani voters, intangible ideas like governance, transparency, accountability, etc, do not matter a terrible lot; what matters is what you can see and touch. If you are provided enough electricity to barely keep you sane, your stove is on just for enough time to get some food ready and the security situation has not deteriorated enough to hamper your way to work, everything else can wait. Electoral reform, you say? Now what good is that to anyone?
Moreover, Pakistani politics is vastly different from its western variant. We often complain about the breed of politicians we are stuck with but even if we take the best politicos from around the world and ask them to run for office in Pakistan, I doubt they would be able to gather much traction for their ideas here. In Pakistan, ethnicity, kinship, biradri (tribal community) and patronage are very tangible factors in times of elections, and the political parties know this. This is why politicians running on a platform of change and reform have recently had a hard time translating their charisma into votes. Another interesting demonstration of just how different our political system is would be to logically reason with staunch supporters of (any) political party over fundamental issues. If you have not tried doing so yet, I will not spoil the fun and leave it for you to try out.
There is, however, a slightly disconcerting scenario where change just might occur: one where the biggest and most influential political party — that is the army, for the uninitiated — chimes in with the rest of the opposition choir. Maybe their engagements in North Waziristan keep them plenty busy and make the current government sleep peacefully at night but it will not last long. Even though it might be more for damage control in Model Town than anything else, Article 245 has tremendously compressed the distance from Miranshah to Constitution Avenue. Infuriate them a bit too much, drag their former colleagues down just a wee bit more, belittle their contributions just a tad extra and they might just have their sherwanis ready in time for the 10 pm state address.
So, if it does rain on the 14th, know this: it is not the actual downpour that is going to be a nuisance but the overflowing drains afterwards. Rains might not bring too much of a respite for us but they sure will bring all the hidden dirt and grime out in the open for us to wade through.
So, come this monsoon season, forget about the umbrellas. Get your rainboots ready instead.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations