Daily Times

August 14 is looking increasingly like a fateful moment in Pakistan’s history, as a collection of irretrievably opposed and selfish political interests converge on Islamabad. The impasse seems complete, since the PML-N and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) appear unwilling to back down, afraid of losing face. With Article 245 in place in Islamabad, many citizens and politicians fear that the army will either be forced to intervene and assist in a compromise or will simply assume control. One can imagine terrorists around the world salivating at the prospect, since their goal is an overstretched and distracted military. Adding to this toxic mix, Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) leader Tahirul Qadri announced on Sunday that his party will join the PTI on its Independence Day march to the capital, raising the potential for violent clashes between government and opposition workers. The government largely defused Qadri’s August 10 rally in Lahore using draconian measures and his supporters were forced to protest in their own localities instead. According to the PAT, as many as 3,000 workers were arrested in Punjab, while the government has issued an arrest warrant for Qadri on charges of incitement to violence and ‘waging war’ against the state. The crackdown on PAT workers shows how efficient the government and police can be when confronted with a serious political challenge, though they have been woefully inadequate in assisting the armed forces in clearing up urban areas of sectarian and other terrorists in the wake of operation Zarb-e-Azb. With Imran Khan’s rhetoric becoming increasingly belligerent and the government adopting harsh measures to quell dissent, life has come to a standstill in both Lahore and Islamabad while around the country apprehensive citizens wonder how this confrontation will end. This includes the military, which is in the difficult position of seeing a potentially disastrous security situation develop even as it fights terrorists in the tribal areas. COAS General Raheel Sharif called an emergency corps commanders meeting yesterday in Rawalpindi to discuss the security concerns arising out of the scheduled PTI march, and they are many. Not only is there potential for clashes between PML-N and PTI workers, or PTI workers and the police, it also presents a golden opportunity for terrorists to wreak havoc. Already scuffles have broken out among PML-N and PTI party workers in Lahore and these clashes could escalate on Independence Day.
How this ends depends on what Qadri and Imran Khan want, and what they can reasonably expect. Imran says he wants electoral reforms because ‘the system’ is corrupt and has vilified numerous people for allegedly participating in rigging last year’s elections, without evidence. In his press conference yesterday he named several of them, inviting defamation suits that he is presumably unworried about because he expects to be ‘in charge’ by the time any suit is filed. He also says he can solve the country’s problems and introduce ‘real’ democracy. In essence his position is that he should head the present system and his goal is to topple the government while keeping the democratic system intact; the modalities of how this will occur have not been discussed, though yesterday he insisted a military intervention was not the way forward. Even if true, this is hardly the ‘change’ he promised. The only expectation is that the government will resign and hold new elections, since it has already rejected the ‘minus-one’ formula of a PML-N government without Nawaz Sharif. The government has given no sign it intends to comply. It has been advised by other opposition parties like the PPP and MQM to allow the protest to continue peacefully, but appears ready to implement administrative measures to stop the march. Tahirul Qadri on the other hand says he wants a ‘revolution’ that will change ‘the system’, and has cheapened that word to apparently mean a theocratic government that puts him in charge. Prima facie his goal is insidious and violence suits his purposes as it puts the government in an untenable position. His announcement and the PTI’s welcoming of it have simply increased the chances that August 14 could end in tragedy for the country. *