Daily Times

What has happened in the last few days in Islamabad may look like a revolution but it is really a cycle. In just one week, Imran has leapt from the precipice of political war to an all-out victory from the political opposition. Appearances, though, can be misleading. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) rallies may look a lot like a revolution and victory for democracy, which is how PTI is describing it, but that view is a triumph of hope over rigourous analysis. If the last 67 years of post-independence politics have taught us anything, it is that the term “revolution” is often misused and that the excitement of the moment can obscure more difficult realities and challenges.

While the 2011 Egyptian revolution has been mentioned by Imran Khan, the roots of the socio-economic context that made the revolution possible have seldom been explored. It can be argued that economic reforms implemented since the late 1980s actually provided conditions for both the emergence of a capitalist oligarchy within the regime and an unprecedented rise in socioeconomic inequality in society at large. These two processes substantially eroded any remnants of hegemony, leaving the Mubarak regime ill-equipped to face the global economic crisis. The PTI movement describes its main goal as ousting Nawaz Sharif, threatening to resort to violence and bringing real justice and democracy through street power. The neoliberal reforms promised by Imran Khan are by no means sufficient conditions for the Pakistani revolution to occur and bring an unparalleled democracy in this way.

It is difficult to explain why eminently sane men like Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri make such poor leaders. Though sane people are better leaders in good times, sanity can be a severe liability in moments of crisis. Poor advice from political strategists can leave one ill equipped to endure dire straits. Clinically, egocentricity, self-indulgence and persistent manipulative behaviour clarify a kind of insanity that makes for the theatricality, histrionics and self-dramatisation seen in both these leaders sometimes on a grand scale. Bold but silent public analysis following the poor show of mass rallies in Islamabad offers powerful new tools for determining who should lead us. Perhaps most profoundly, it encourages us to rethink our view of the mental state of our leaders as a regularly reviewed phenomenon. Imran threatens to replace all the irresolute and disobedient civil servants who, by their past, their knowledge of corrupt governments and their capabilities are not tackling particular tasks. This appears to constitute a threat to justice and accountability, and it proves they are isolated from the masses and ill disposed to helping people with their problems. This is the case with Imran Khan, who has taken over the task of concluding the process of transforming the country into a ‘new Pakistan’ that will be able to look forward to a long tradition of legality and to rely on the support of sections of the young emotional population as well as on the manifold political stalwarts, turning them into willing tools of the PTI.

I am not sure what kind of conclusion I can draw on the PTI leader and the host of failures and forgotten promises. There is no unifying reason why Imran has failed as a politician. In the 2013 elections, they did not have enough firepower to finish the race. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa they did not have the required numbers to be independent any longer and power sharing with other parties was a necessary accord. Since winning the NA-56 seat, Imran has not once visited the constituency to inquire about the problems constituents face. Over the last two years, Imran has frequently taken a U-turn in his policy statements. However, what can be said is that these events and ideas are not totally useless to a historian. Firstly, they tell us about the successes and failures there have been, and that there are many clinical reasons for this visible instability and impulsivity in the face of overwhelming odds. Imran Khan is the most discussed political leader in the media and analysts and television anchors are filling their shows with sharp, often contemptuous criticism of him and his political immaturity. Mr Khan’s self-portrait is of an ambitious man of prodigious energy, a quick, sharp mind, but adolescent sensibilities about politics and government, confirmed in the two decades of politics he has played so far. The real Imran Khan, according to his close associates and journalists, based on extensive interviews, is, in a few words, stubborn, attention seeking and determined. Sentimentality is the weakness one notes as the cricketer-turned-politician’s blind spot but the overall tone is one of me, myself and I.

We should not be surprised if, in a few years, another set of protests, or simply an election, ousts a hypothetical Prime Minister Imran Khan. That is because we cannot view the PTI through the lens of revolution. One after another, new movements for the restoration of democracy will appear, vengefully dismantling its previous foundations. Instead, we must question the lessons learnt from the string of revolutions, specifically the idea that these events represented an unambiguous movement towards democracy. This is particularly important because we are hearing that same message today from the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) and it is guiding us towards wrong policy decisions. Is it possible that recent events in Islamabad will lead to a real revolution? The chances are very slim. The challenge for the PTI leadership is to strike a decisive victory for democracy and not to somehow just defeat Nawaz Sharif, but rather build a new consensus in the country that does not treat half the population as absolute winners and the other half as absolute losers. Building such a consensus will be very difficult but it will be impossible if Imran’s allies and friends continue to speak triumphantly of revolution and a win for democracy.

The writer is a professor of Psychiatry and consultant Forensic Psychiatrist in the UK. He can be contacted at fawad_shifa@yahoo.com