This article is neither in support of nor against the current Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) led agitation and street protests. Instead it attempts to examine the role and effectiveness of such movements in democratic setups. First, street-led protests against dictators have more often failed than succeeded as despots use brutal state force to crush uprisings. Iraq under Saddam Hussein, until his overthrow by the US-led military campaign Operation Iraqi Freedom of 2003, Syria under the Assads and even Pakistan under Zia where the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD) of 1983 against his rule was put down by the use of state military power, are some prime examples. Instances where movements have led to the downfall of dictators are those where extensive overt or covert foreign intervention in terms of financial, moral and materiel support becomes widely available, for instance in Libya.
In states where democratic principles have yet to take strong roots and where democratically elected rulers are perceived to have assumed dictatorial power, street power with overt or covert support from abroad is not an uncommon phenomenon. Take Pakistan, for example. Ayub Khan’s removal was precipitated by street protests, led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, across the country and Bhutto’s demise in turn was initiated by the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) led street agitations in 1977. In the dual upstaging of Benazir (1990 and 1997) and Nawaz Sharif (1993), street protests were the initiators that eventually resulted in their removal.
Abroad, elsewhere, the Orange Revolution in 2004 (mass protests and sit-ins) eventually overturned the electoral triumph of Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine, forcing a run-off vote where he lost to his rival, Viktor Yushchenko. A similar movement codenamed Jeans/Cornflower was witnessed in 2005 in Belarus against President Alexander Lukashenka that failed to achieve its objective. Again, in 2014, mass uprising forced Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who had been duly elected in 2010, out of power. President Viktor Yanukovych had earlier spurned a proposed deal to foster closer ties with the EU. The Russian invasion of Crimea and the current crisis in eastern Ukraine that led to the tragic shooting down of a Malaysian Airline are, in reality, fallouts of the events of 2014 where an uprising actively supported by the US and EU led to the ouster of a democratically elected president whose policies were heavily tilted towards Russia. That he was also accused of mass murder after allegedly ordering the police to open fire on opposition protestors in Kiev, killing over 100 people, was also an important factor.
The Red Shirt Revolution in Thailand ousted the democratically elected party from power and, since then, revolutions of varying hues using street power as the primary tool have successfully toppled successive democratically elected regimes. A quick search on the internet will reveal more than a dozen people-led revolts against sitting governments since the 1970s (Yellow, Carnation, Velvet, Rose, Purple, Tulip and Jasmine for instance), many in fledgling democracies. Some were successful and others fizzled out or were crushed.
Viewed from a historical perspective, the current crisis in Pakistan where the PTI and PAT led multitudes have encircled key state institutions with their fanatical supporters baying for the blood of Nawaz Sharif, the duly elected and heavily mandated prime minister of the country, are actually symptoms and not the real cause. The real reason behind the apparent public support for Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri is the actual and perceived poor governance by the party in power that had promised the moon during its campaign and delivered very little in their one-year stint so far, the party’s claims of outstanding achievements notwithstanding. The general consensus is that the country is worse off today than it was under the five-year Zardari rule that many in the country consider as the very nadir in governance, nepotism and corruption.
Dictators have the luxury of crushing any civil-led rebellion through the use of state power, especially the armed forces, because their rise to power in most instances were actively supported by the military; many of them in fact were the heads of the powerful military when they assumed power. Their ouster becomes possible only when powerful international players throw their might behind the revolt. In a democracy, even a nascent one, this option is rarely available as the armed forces are very reluctant to use force against unarmed civilians even when ordered by the government. In fact, in a number of instances, civil disobedience movements have the tacit support of the military.
Zardari managed to survive due to clever politicking, allowing him and his party, the PPP, to complete their five-year term but, in the process, it impoverished the country due to massive corruption and mismanagement. Nawaz Sharif, on the other hand, does not appear to have similar Machiavellian skills for handling political crises. His third term is in severe danger within a year of assuming power and, even if he survives, he will be considerably weakened.
Weak and ineffective governance by Nawaz Sharif and his party, the PML-N, by themselves might not have led to the effectiveness of the dual marches but the massacre of the 14 supporters of Tahirul Qadri in front of his residence in Lahore by the Punjab police that report directly to the powerful chief minister of the province is an event even the Pakistanis who have become immune to violence and the endemic corruption of their elected representatives are finding very hard to digest. This one incident has ignited public wrath against the ruling clique led by Nawaz Sharif and his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif. This wrath is still keeping the fire of the PTI and the PAT led street revolts burning despite some glaring discrepancies in their demands and actions. Failure of the PML-N to handle the crisis politically and resorting to the use of force will very likely sound the death knell of the two.
In the final analysis, good governance is the only panacea against civil revolt and street protests. When it is missing, threats to the ruling party will emanate from within in one form or the other.
The writer is a defence analyst and director of Centre of Airpower Studies. He can be reached at jamal4701@yahoo.co.uk
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