Daily Times

People in the subcontinent are familiar with phaddas (brawls) and the structure they take here. A subcontinental phadda is about macho chest-thumping, some desultory pushes at the opponents face, a weak punch or two, while opposing groups of brawlers push against each other aimlessly, surrounded by a larger crowd of watchers. Neither side wants it to go further than weak punches and half-hearted pushes because if someone gets really hurt, someone else turns it up a notch and pulls out a gun. This is an apt analogy for Pakistan’s relationship with India, except in this case the guns are nuclear weapons.

Unlike 1999 (Kargil) and 2008 (Mumbai), this time who began the chest thumping is debatable. India’s new Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi is noted for being ideologically wedded to Hindutva, a revanchist ideology of Hindu revitalisation. For the first time in its history, his party the BJP has a simple majority in India’s parliament. Modi’s adoption of an aggressive mode has disappointed observers on both sides of the border since he gave Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif a cold shoulder when the latter visited Delhi for his inauguration at considerable political risk. Recently Modi visited Kashmir and berated Pakistan for fighting a proxy war there because it is no longer able to fight a conventional war. India closed the Delhi offices of the UN Military Observers Group for India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) last month, saying the mission had outlived its purpose. Since then (and even earlier) the two countries have been trading sustained fire across the Line of Control (LoC) and working boundary, proving the exact opposite. Five Pakistani civilians have died while India claims two civilians and two soldiers have been killed in the mutual shelling. As many as 50 ceasefire violations have been alleged by India across the length of the boundary, with both sides accusing the other of firing first. India cancelled secretary level talks scheduled for August 25 on the pretext that Pakistan’s High Commissioner met Kashmiri separatist leaders, a longstanding practice. Increasing violence on the border reflects heightening political tensions, not least about water.

While secretary level talks were cancelled, delegations of the India-Pakistan Indus Commission met in Lahore on Monday, with Pakistan saying it may take India to the International Court of Justice for violations of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. India plans to build dams across the Chenab and Jhelum river headwaters, western rivers belonging to Pakistan according to the treaty, which India says it has a right to divert without storing. Previous arbitrations upheld India’s position while taking note of Pakistan’s concerns, but Pakistani inefficiency extends to diplomacy and consequently on both Kashmir and water rights it has never presented a sufficiently persuasive case. The escalation in violence is not new. But as in previous such escalations, it is time the DGMOs and field commanders on both sides talked under existing arrangements to defuse an unnecessary conflagration. *