Daily Times

Whether unpredictable Pakistani politics might deliver some surprises after days of intense drama is not yet certain. The widely televised event that has kept viewers glued to their sets could climax soon. The two groups leading the high voltage act could not find enough traction to deliver the desired end. Still, it brought some fundamental issues and problems in the electoral system to the forefront. The anticipated huge crowds, demanding the resignation of the prime minister, failed to show up. The poor weather combined with a lack of organisation stole the thunder of the marchers. This forced the leaders to alter their plans from extreme demands to a call for civil disobedience and now to negotiations. Where they will go from here hangs in the balance.

Imran Khan is protesting alleged rigging for a few seats in the last National Assembly elections. He managed to convince his followers that he had reached the end of the road for redress. He saw no other option for an already fragile state. The followers of Imran Khan were in a state of shock after the elections. The party bought his election campaign rhetoric hook, line and sinker. The results were in line with the general opinion that Prime Minister Sharif and his party would win a majority. Most political analysts predicted about 40 seats for the PTI. The PTI came close and won 35 seats. As expected, his party also formed the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PTI had contested the elections for the first time and the results were excellent. The election results would have pleased any political party.

The shrill call for new elections picked up momentum only after the army moved into FATA to clear out the Taliban in June. Before army action, Imran Khan, in his speeches, advocated talks with the Taliban. Initially, he supported the army action but later statements by him favoured talks with the terrorist group again.

The political history of Pakistan is crises ridden. From the first Ahmedi riots of 1953 to the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) movement in 1977, all large-scale protests resulted in a change of government at the top. The second prime minister, Khwaja Nazimuddin, Field Marshal Ayub Khan and the first elected prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, all lost power after prolonged demonstrations. The reasons for the protests might be different but the end results were always the same.

Pakistan, in recent history, has seen many deliberate small or large-scale crises. Since 2007, a series of crisis has engulfed Pakistan. The removal of the former Chief Justice (CJ) in 2007 set the course. The resulting lawyers movement led to the now famous National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO). The assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the elections straight after led to the fall of President Musharraf.

The Zardari administration dealt with many crises designed to force solutions that the elite preferred. The Kerry-Luger Bill did not contain anything sensational, but still a crisis developed. The media played up cosmetic clauses in the bill to embarrass the civilian government. The Zardari administration came to power with unambiguous US support. The idea was to develop a partnership between civilian politicians and the military bureaucracy. However, the Kerry-Luger Bill crisis impaired the politicians’ authority. The Ray Davis saga humiliated US civilian agencies. The US responded by a dramatic mission of US navy SEALS to arrest Osama bin Laden from the garrison city of Abbottabad. Then Memogate emerged.

There was not much substance in the whole Memogate affair. The media again ran with it and the civilian government endured tremendous pressure. Mr Hussain Haqqani, the then ambassador to the US, had to resign. His resignation cut off the Zardari administration’s direct connection with the US State Department and the White House. Memogate salvaged the ignominy of the uninterrupted US mission in Abbottabad.

The current crisis is also a continuation of the same crisis that the previous civilian administration faced. Just three months ago, there were some rumblings about irregularities in the elections. Primary concern centred on talks with the militant groups. Prime Minister Sharif and his government pushed for these talks. The Imran Khan-led PTI supported that position as well. The talks did not produce any let up in militant attacks and suicide bombings. The final nail was the militant attack on Karachi airport. The consensus across the nation favoured military action in militant-held areas. As soon as the military action started, the political climate in the country began to change dramatically.

The previous PPP administration and now the PML-N have identical views on many issues. They agree on promoting trade and normalising relations within the region. The foreign and defence policies supported by both parties differ significantly from the policies favoured by the establishment in Pakistan. In internal issues, civilian emphasis is on the development of business rather than spending resources on defence-related projects.

The primary difference that sets the civilians and the establishment apart is the control of several policies. It is just not about foreign policy alone; the control of the internal policies, especially the handling of the various segments of sectarian and militant conflicts that threaten national unity, are also significant areas of contention. Civilians prefer a controlling stake in these policies. The establishment considers all these policies part of its exclusive domain.

Behind all these lurks the fundamental issue that revolves around the economic and fiscal policies that civilians wish to promote. The establishment views civilian ideas suspiciously. The quick ramp up of the current impasse, the round the clock projection in the digital media and the fiery positions by two groups projects identical patterns of crises observed during the previous administration. The difference between the PPP and the current PML-N is the base of public support they have. The PPP was slightly on the weaker wicket as its support centred on the smaller provinces.

Sindh, where the PPP had majority support, continually suffered internal strife generated by one urban-based political party. The PLM-N boasts support from the majority province. Hence, the opposition groups have emerged from Punjab. One group has no representation in any assembly but still has mobilised a core religious group to foment political trouble. The PTI-proposed judicial commission would enforce the election laws and rules in the short term. It would also disqualify current members of the assembly to take part in future elections. In short, the commission of professionals could force another set of rigged elections on the country.

The hope in Imran’s camp is that the arbitration by the establishment and agitating persons might force the PML-N to accept the proposal in the interests of peace. Imran Khan playing a game of low percentage of success intends to place the country on the edge. The current deadlock will end soon. However, the differences over fundamental issues that exist in society and the governing system will require a long-term approach and constant efforts to make lasting improvements.

The writer is a management consultant based in the US. He is a freelance writer and tweets as @HarPasha