Daily Times

The political impasse in Pakistan has reached a point where it has become inevitable that the Sharif regime will have to go. The events of the last few months have eroded its administrative authority and the regime is devoid of any political capital whatsoever. However, the key stakeholders have a genuine concern that if a government falls under “mob” assault on the capital, it will set a dangerous precedent. There are also fears among the political forces in the country and our friends in the west that the inevitable demise of the Sharif regime can, potentially, reverse the gradual gains made by civilians in the civil-military balance of Pakistan. There is also fear about the post ouster scenario where, in the guise of accountability, hidden hands may try to impose a long-term, non-representative technocratic setup or outright martial law.
Given the inevitability of his departure, Nawaz Sharif could make things easier by offering to resign and going for mid-term elections. This will be acceptable to all; the Sharifs will still be in play politically and, above all, it will be totally constitutional. However, devoid of political or administrative capital, Nawaz Sharif has done what he does best: he is holding on to the reins of power and is pushing things to where the standoff can lead to unfortunate and unconstitutional outcomes.
If there are not enough officials willing to take up positions in the capital’s police, you know your administrative authority is all but intact. To top this, the regime has lost all the political capital it once had. If one recalls, the regime’s only successful resistance to the Imran-Qadri onslaught came in the form of a joint parliamentary session. However, when one thinks of it, the session further eroded the political position of the PML-N. The session that was supposed to be a moment for the government to offer a counter-political agenda ended up being dominated by the opposition. It was not the prime minister’s speech that resonated as a challenge to the political narrative of Imran-Qadri; that was accomplished by Khursheed Shah, Aitzaz Ahsan, Zahid Khan and Farooq Sattar. If this were not enough, the fact that rarely anyone from the ruling party’s backbenches took the floor, gave the impression that the PML-N is a politically bankrupt and authoritarian party. The only message that the session sent was that the Nawaz regime is a failed one but the political forces of the country are not ready to support any unconstitutional misadventure.
That message alone could not make the current political impasse fizzle out. Blame it on Imran Khan or not, the fact remains that the sense of apathy on the streets of all major cities of the country has turned into rage. That coupled with a series of missteps, starting from the Model Town incident, has thrown the Punjab and federal governments into an administrative paralysis. Add to this the doubts over the legitimacy of Mr Sharif’s mandate and there is no way this government can survive.
This situation cannot linger on indefinitely. If Nawaz has political maturity, he will resign and announce fresh elections. But Nawaz Sharif is someone whose rendezvous with power has always ended in a constitutional deadlock. He is on the same course again and this makes the job of the political forces in the country harder in saving constitutionalism.
There still are constitutional ways out of this impasse. One is going to an independent commission to probe elections within two months and, if the elections are found to have been rigged, calling fresh elections. The roadblock on this route is the definition of rigging, with the government insisting that it should only go if it is proved that the PML-N systematically rigged the elections. To remove this roadblock, the political forces need to put their foot down in unison. It does not matter who rigged the elections; if the elections are proved rigged by whosoever, the mandate loses legitimacy and thus a fresh election is the only ethical course left.
The second course is through the PML-N’s parliamentary party. They have a stake in this. If Nawaz Sharif continues this confrontational course, it is not going to save the government. Also, with the general trend in the nation, the ouster, whichever way it comes, is not going to lead to any sympathy. Most likely, if they continue like this, general apathy coupled with the perception of them being a threat to the system will make it even harder for them, post-ouster. So, it is in the interests of the PML-N itself to put pressure on the Sharifs from within to go for fresh elections. This seems their only way to live politically to fight another day.
The last route is the simplest: the political forces that have stood with Nawaz in the joint session should raise the demand for mid-term elections in unison. With the country paralysed politically, administratively and economically, this demand is totally justified. This will not be backstabbing because the forces are not responsible for creating this political deadlock. Ideally, the government should have completed its term but questions over the legitimacy of elections coupled with a political and administrative impasse makes it unlikely. Mid-term elections are a totally constitutional route out of this crisis and, for the stability of the country, the system must continue. If we want to ensure continuation of the system, sacrificing prime ministers (recall Yousaf Raza Gilani) is not too big a price to pay. Borrowing from cricket, “stay at the crease and runs will come” should be the mantra of all who want constitutionalism to prevail in Pakistan.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik