Daily Times

The threat of nuclear weapons theft and bioterrorism in South Asia once again came under discussion in the international press on how terrorist organisations in both Pakistan and India are trying to retrieve biotechnology and nuclear weapons, and use them against civilians and the security forces. The recent border skirmishes between Pakistan and India, the cloud of civil war in Afghanistan and the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist organisation in the Persian Gulf and the Arab world further justified the possibilities of the complex threat of chemical and biological terrorism. As Pakistan and Afghanistan have been the victims of terrorism and Talibanisation during the last three decades, the establishment of ISIS networks in South Asia may possibly change the traditional concept of terrorism and insurgency in the region.

There is a general perception that extremist organisations in South Asia could use some advanced technologies against civilian populations. If control over these weapons is weak, the possibility of theft increases. The problem of nuclear and biological terrorism deserves special attention from all South Asian states, including Afghanistan. As nuclear weapons, missile technologies and bio-weapons proliferate, there is a grave danger that some of them might fall into the hands of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), ISIS and Indian and Afghani extremist groups. In South and Central Asia, some states, including Pakistan, have started responding to the threat of nuclear and biological terrorism with technical means.

Each state has its own approach towards the threat perception. The more recent focus on global terrorism issues is also now sharpening the focus on non-proliferation activities that do not necessarily apply at the level of the state. There are speculations that non-state actors might possibly engage in these activities. The Islamic State that controls parts of Iraq and Syria has established its network in Afghanistan and Pakistan as the region is already dominated by violent terrorist groups. The New York Times recently reported that as many as 1,000 Turks joined the ISIS network. The CIA estimated last week that the group had anywhere from 20,000 to 31,500 fighters in Iraq and Syria.

South Asian states are facing the threat of terrorism and violent extremism. The unending civil war in Afghanistan and Pakistan has destabilised the whole region. Terrorism in Afghanistan affects Pakistan and Iran, its heat touches the Iranian border while the flames are clearly seen in China and Russia as well. As South Asian states have been embroiled in protracted conflicts for decades, the lack of proper strategies to counter the TTP, ISIS and Indian extremism, and the clash of interests, have further aggravated the problem. Extremist and terrorist groups in this region are striving to retrieve nuclear and biological weapons and use them against the government or civilian population. The issue is further complicated as some secret reports have revealed the use of nuclear and biological weapons inside Russia. In November 1995, Chechen separatists put a crude bomb in Moscow’s Izmailovsky Park.

The debate about bioterrorism is not entirely new in the region because both Pakistan and India have developed these weapons to use them in a future war. On December 3, 1984, the worst chemical disaster occurred in the city of Bhopal in India, causing the deaths of thousands of people. If a nuclear war were to break out in South Asia, experts believe that it is most likely to happen in India and Pakistan. This kind of war would have dire consequences. In the Seoul Summit, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh warned that South Asia is under threat. Two incidents in Karachi and another in Balochistan proved that terrorists were trying to retrieve nuclear weapons to use them against military or nuclear installations.

The Indian government has recognised the threat from bioweapons as real and imminent. Both the ministry of defence and ministry of home affairs placed high priority on this issue. India understands that Pakistan-based terrorist groups may possibly use these weapons in Kashmir in the near future. Pakistan too has expressed deep concern about the use of these weapons against its security forces either by the Taliban or Baloch insurgents. The emergence of recent polio and bird flu cases in Pakistan is the primary warning of danger.

The nucleation of my debate on nuclear terrorism is that, once the TTP or other terrorist group steals biological and nuclear weapons, they will use them against the military and nuclear installations. National security experts in the UK and US believe that the most likely way terrorists will obtain a nuclear bomb will not be to steal or purchase a fully operational device but to buy fissile material and construct their own.

In South Asia, every state has applied its own classified security measures for nuclear weapons security. In Pakistan, a nuclear weapons security regime involves human, physical and technical means. However, there is a general perception that, notwithstanding these technical measures, there is a danger that nuclear materials may possibly get into the hands of terrorist organisations. The future of illicit trade of nuclear materials in South Asia by non-state actors and terrorists may further jeopardise the security of the region. The problem of this trade appears to be growing worse as technologies proliferate. With the global spread of technologies and rapid illegal sale of uranium and plutonium, traffickers could find it easier to ply their dangerous trade.

Generally speaking, the absence of available reports in official data does not negate the fact the terrorist and extremist organisations interact in the smuggling of nuclear materials. India and Pakistan understand the sensitivity of the protection of these weapons. By analysing the threat of chemical and bioterrorism in South Asia, I do not want to exaggerate or distort facts. This analysis is a warning to Pakistan and India that as ISIS has arrived in the region and the TTP and Mujahideen-e-Hind have announced their allegiance to the terrorist groups, there must be concordance over responding to this violent threat.

The writer is the author of The Crisis of Britain’s Surveillance State. He can be reached at zai.musakhan222@gmail.com