Daily Times

US involvement in the conundrum that is now Iraq, Levant and the greater Middle East is a desperate attempt to stop the spread of the Islamic State (IS), with every member in the coalition that has taken form, including Saudi Arabia, fearing the militant group. The kingdom fears IS the most, given the widely prevalent radical and violent political Islam in the country and how the ruling elite negotiates with it while managing a relationship with the US, widely hated by the Arabs. Then there are the Gulf States, each with its own elite power structure fearing jolts.

The Arab-western coalition has carried out strikes against IS in Iraq in an effort to thwart its advances and to help the forces fighting it, including the Iraqi army as well as the Kurds and also some of the tribal groups from the Anbar province. However, IS has the latitude to change its tactics and maneuverability in the territory across Syria and Iraq, which it holds, and only ground action may see some results, unlikely to find constituency in the west at this point in time. The same is the case with a prolonged campaign, as has been affirmed in the statement last month by British Prime Minister (PM) David Cameron, that this war would “take not months but years” to defeat the IS. The ongoing assault by IS on the Syrian-Kurdish town of Kobane, right at the border with Turkey, has exposed the challenges that the coalition faces from the players in the Middle East. NATO member state Turkey is proving to be something of a challenge for diplomacy and strategy alike, with its unwillingness to allow joint operations or even the use of its Incirlik base in operations against IS.

The situation is dire: the Turkish PM attacking the regime of Abdel Fateh al-Sisi in Egypt, citing its undemocratic character, followed by near personal barbs from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, with the Arabs casting aspersions on Turkey over its soft corner for the IS, with whom the Turks conveniently negotiated the release of 49 Turkish hostages, besides the taint that Turkey’s lax policing of its border with Syria helped IS in getting easy access to men and logistics. The sale of IS-produced oil inside Turkey has raised eyebrows, along with its role as a conduit to IS-held territory in northern Syria for supplying equipment enabling IS to set up makeshift refineries for distilling crude oil into fuel for exports. Objectionable is also Turkey’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood, a pariah group in the Arab world, by granting them sanctuary and welcome in Turkey, conveying an impression of Turkey holding extremists in its embrace.

Arab states also appear willing to distance themselves from most extremists, whom they hold responsible for escalating the brutal violence in the region, all stemming from the twin conflicts in Syria and Iraq, threatening the current order across the wider region. For a long time the Arab elite has been trying to force Iran to stop pursuing its allegedly sectarian agenda, its overt and covert support to Hezbollah, al-Assad and Iraqi Shia factions, in turn using some extremist options of its own, flaring up the conflict. The Arab League secretary general, Nabil Elaraby, is active in trying to bring together the Syrian National Coalition as an alternative to Assad, given their firm stand that eventually a solution will require Assad to be removed, with Iran and Russia, staunch allies of Assad, placated towards allowing an inclusive regime.

Iran has reluctantly allowed for some changes in Iraq, where its ally, crudely sectarian Shia PM Noori al Maliki resigned, paving the way for new blocks emerging after elections held this April. The new PM, Haider al Abadi, a Shia, seeks to form an inclusive new cabinet. In fact, talks are on to induct a leading Sunni, the former finance minister, Rafi al Issawi, who was harassed by the al Maliki block and forced out as the defence minister. Al Abadi is still keen to push his nomination and keep a Shia as the interior minister, aiming to achieve a nominal reconciliation in the middle of a country brutalised and torn apart by sectarian and ethnic strife.

In another development showcasing the Middle East’s instability, the Shia Zaidi clan of the Houthis has dislodged, after their 10-year long rebellion, a Sunni establishment that was supported by the west as well as Saudi Arabia. The erstwhile Yemeni regime and Saudi Arabia have for long claimed that the Houthis are supported by the Iranians. However, the Saudis so far appear unwilling to get embroiled in the Yemeni conflict, for now, and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains the only force in opposition to the Houthis. This is one of the aspects of the complexity of Saudi-Iranian relations.

Iran’s core raison d’être since the 1979 revolution has been to fight Israel even by proxy if needed — in this case via Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Syria, causing several problems, including the sectarian strife in the Levant with Assad’s rule in Syria opposed by many Syrian Sunnis and supported by other Arab states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and also Turkey. However, along with Iran, Russia has also developed stakes in Syria and now the Russian probability of a crumbling Assad regime weighs a lot more on this Arab-west coalition.

It is also ironic that in Syria, al Qaeda’s offshoot, the al Nusra Brigade, is also referred to as a moderate opposition when the west speaks of arming forces fighting Assad, not surprising when compared to the brutal IS that, within a month of its most phenomenal expansion, claimed vast swathes of land as part of its caliphate and made the most brutal demonstrations of its intolerance. However, for lasting peace, it is as important to have opposition forces with depth, strength and penetration to replace the Assad regime, as it is to demonstrate greater latitude of tolerance towards the diversity of groups in the region. While secular humanism would be too much to expect from a sectarian strife-torn Syria or Iraq for that matter, forces that will appreciate the language of reconciliation and compromise can go a long way in overcoming the grief and torment caused by IS in the past few months of its emergence, expansion and its announcement of a global caliphate. The risk is for wider west Asia and beyond, for whom the bells toll.

The writer tweets @JanjuaHaroon and can be contacted at janjuaharoon01@gmail.com