Daily Times

The NA-149 by-election in Multan has raised more questions than it has answered. Although seeing stalwarts like Hashmi taste defeat remains a novelty, we should not really read too much between the lines. Even with the PML-N electoral machinery on Hashmi’s side, the anti-PML-N sentiment was always going to be too strong in the wake of Hashmi’s unceremonious exit from the PTI. However, even though we may not be able to deduce much, one thing is plenty clear: the nation is in an unforgiving mood. Toy with it a bit too much and you will pay the price, put one tiny toe behind that line and you will be left reeling.

The more important thing at this stage is to ask if there is an end to the limbo that looms large over the Pakistani state. The civil-military (im)balance has been largely restored but the political crisis that began a couple of months ago is still producing all kinds of unintended consequences. Since the start of the opposition movement by Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri, a lot has been said and done. Speeches, antics, threats, violence and restraint have all been tried but still there is no end in sight. And now, with the PPP and MQM having a go at it in Sindh, the PTI and PAT might have to get inventive, and quick.

With the sit-ins turning into permanent features of the Islamabad landscape, it might be a good idea for the protesting throngs to take the struggle nationwide. In this day and age of fast-paced living and even faster politics, the perception of being stagnant can do a lot of harm to any political party. The PTI is rightly focusing on urban areas where it stands to gain a lot of new converts, adding to its support base. However, such nationwide protests will only benefit Imran Khan’s claim to power if elections are held sooner rather than later. Yes, people are getting desperate but even with Khan’s unshakeable perseverance over the past months, prolonging the crisis might be ultimately detrimental to the protestors’ objectives.

For the PML-N contingent though, the looming threat of military intervention has passed, and they have not wasted a moment before settling back into their old ways. Decisions are being made on an ad hoc basis and projects with electoral mileage are being sped up. But even with the government pretending to put the pedal to the metal, the sentiment against the PML-N government in Punjab and at the Centre is sturdier than ever. It is as if, in the face of calculative non-gestures by the government, the protestors have been given a much simpler pill to digest in the form of the “go Nawaz go” chant. In fact, the PTI narrative has caught on to the extent that those on the fence are now finding it increasingly difficult to stay neutral in such times of crisis. That being said, in the absence of any direct threat from other institutions, the extent to which politics alone can pressurise the government into calling a midterm election to reclaim its lost mandate remains to be seen.

Sadly though, while the protest movement has generated a lot of support, its focus still remains myopic. Personal vendettas and grievances notwithstanding, it would be better for the protestors now to start throwing their net a little wider and talking about how meaningful reform will come. Woefully though, so far the focus of the movement has fluctuated from the absurd to the abstract. Gone are the slogans about the four constituencies. Gone too is the hubbub over civil disobedience. What the PTI and PAT are currently engaged in is electoral campaigning, pure and simple. But the sad thing is that this campaigning is still not clear over reforms in service delivery and other crippling issues. The movement has generated enough support to start discussing issues like patronage-based and dynastic politics but as the choice of candidate by the PTI in Multan’s by-election shows, the protestors have chosen to cavort with the devil they know than the one they do not. There are also rightful concerns over the influence of street power in politics, and any future government will have to come to terms with the unpredictability of the mob even after winning elections, fairly or otherwise.

Moreover, Imran Khan has gained a significant number of new followers because of his active involvement in instigating the current protest movement. Whereas the elder Sharif appeared listless, the captain looms decisive as ever. Right or wrong, he appears to be in control of the situation atop his container and in a country like Pakistan that counts for a lot. However, endless though his charisma may be, he stands alone in this fight, largely because of his own antics. But why is that problematic? Here is why.

If you do not put enough energy into generating relations with other stakeholders, then the capricious mob that giveth shall also someday take away. Additionally, if and when elections are held, uprooting the PML-N from Punjab is going to prove a very tough cookie. Coalitions will have to be made and compromises will have to be engineered. By alienating himself from every other major political party in the country, Imran Khan, much like the 2013 elections, is betting it all on his party being able to win a landslide victory in Punjab and, hence, at the Centre as well, a notion that is highly debatable even at this stage. In trying to emulate the lone wolf, Khan must also be cognizant of that one wretched fact that all charismatic personalities find out sooner or later: when things go awry, being a singular trooper becomes a liability that is just too hard to get rid of.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations