Daily Times

No, I am not going to gloat nor am I going to say I told you so. The wrap-up of Dr Qadri’s circus did not come as a surprise to me nor did his prior stint in the same city back in 2013. There were some folks who were shocked, taken by surprise and some were in total disbelief. I wonder why. What was their level of expectation? I still remember an extremely loud-mouthed anchor, famous for his “blunt truth”, asking the respected reverend whether he would ditch his sit-in like the last time. Guess what the respected Allama told him. This gentleman seemed to be educated and if he was fooled by our dear learned leader, then what can one expect from his otherwise blind followers?

Some felt sorry for these blind followers because they were poorer people who believed in him and perhaps still do with utmost intensity. The world has two kinds of people: the drivers and the driven. In the category of driven sometimes you find suckers as well. By no stretch of the imagination can the entire group behind the sacred man be categorised as total suckers. Regardless, it was quite an enlightening experience for any aspiring revolutionaries. Whoever made this plan, whether in London or Lala Musa, was not familiar with something called the theory of probability. In business school, we are taught in statistics about a phenomenon called the decision tree. You chart your plan and its likely outcomes and from there expand on each outcome and assign a numerical value based on every probability for that particular outcome. It is quite a tedious exercise but, at the same time, quite fascinating as well. My humble suggestion to those who spend their days and nights conceiving devious plans is to apply this tool for any of their future endeavours. I can assure them it will come in very handy.

Quite surprisingly, our dear reverend who, by his own admission, is in constant communication with the netherworld, was unable to get any assistance from that end as well when it came to bringing down the evil brothers he termed “Hitler” and “Mussolini”. I may perhaps be stretching it here but, in my very humble opinion, perhaps it had something to do with the cash as well. Ironic it may be but even revolutions cost a tonne of it, especially when you have an entourage of followers occupying the capital for 67 days. As they say, there is no such thing as a free lunch so imagine serving three meals to thousands every day. Even if you have bleeding hearts all around the world emptying their wallets for your revolutionary cause, it all boils down to the trade off. What is the end result? If it is zero, no matter how many hours of airtime you hog each day and no matter how many fiery speeches you make, the people who are paying for your shenanigans eventually will opt for Russian roulette. It may sound extremely harsh but it is all about funding. When that flow starts to dry up, reality starts to sink in. Yes, it is all about the cash. Then there are whispers of a muk muka (settlement), which of course no one will ever publicly own. I may add here that reasonable deduction leads one to assume that if any settlement happened, it involved cash.

The ‘cousin’ who still enjoys the limelight and a primetime slot will eventually meet the same fate. Again the harsh reality mentioned above has its own mysterious way of getting itself through the thickest of thick skulls. Diehard fans will be given a new spin and, yes, those suckers who are a dime a dozen will shift their focus towards that new carrot. This should be a learning experience not only for these overzealous leaders but their equally clueless followers. Never set the bar at a level that is imaginary. Based on the voices that one hears on social media and on the tube, there is a significant segment of people who are completely sick of this puppet show. This is the segment that needs proper handling. If the electoral map now has three major players and two of them are at complete odds with one another, then the third player will cash in on the situation.

Our third player after seven years had an awakening to pay its respects to the fallen martyrs of 2007. The show was undoubtedly large and a demonstration of their support base, but what these political wizards overlooked was that this was their home base to begin with. If one were to ask my opinion about their show or any other rally, I would say it means nothing. It is an optical illusion to impress their opponents and that is about it. No one is going to cast their ballot on their way out of that venue so it makes no difference. If I had my way, all of these gatherings would be totally out of the question. More about that another day. For now, I will simply say congratulations. You can figure out the reason for the felicitation.

The writer is a Pakistani-American mortgage banker. He blogs at http://dasghar.blogspot.com and can be reached at dasghar@aol.com. He tweets at http://twitter.com/dasghar