Daily Times

The story of a new revolution began as the Taliban and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continue to establish their military networks in districts and provinces the US and UK have withdrawn their forces from. The Taliban continue to advance in Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar, Nooristan, Badakhshan, Kundoz and Ghazni provinces with the support of the local population alienated by the Afghan police and national army. Afghanistan began fluttering its wings for another civil war in which new domestic and international players are likely to share their guns with the Afghan army, criminal militias, Taliban and ISIS forces. Faced with the prospect of a military vacuum, NATO and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have decided to withdraw from the country but Afghanistan now wants to cling to its time tested friend India for stability and a military build up. According to diplomatic sources, before his oath, Prime Minister Modi held two telephone conversations with former President Hamid Karzai.

Afghanistan wants a bigger Indian role and in this context the recent visit of National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval to Kabul is seen in Kabul as an extremely significant one. From Kabul’s perspective, India’s role and its military deployment will help the country defeat the Pakistan-backed Taliban insurgents. The Afghan rulers want to bolster their ethnically divided army with big ticket military hardware from India and Russia. Having realised the importance of China other than India, the new Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, visited China for crucial talks. He knows the importance of neighbouring states, specifically Pakistan, and within two weeks is expected to visit the country. With the withdrawal of UK and US forces from the country, new players like China, Russia, India and Pakistan are expected to fortify their strategic interests. India’s relations with Afghanistan have improved steadily since the fall of the Taliban but relations with Pakistan are strained.

India needs to walk slowly into mountainous Afghanistan because the return of the Taliban or other extremist forces might pose a major threat to its interests in the near future. According to a recent report in one of Pakistan’s Urdu newspapers, India has intended to deploy more than 40,000 troops to Afghanistan to crush the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba terrorist network that recruits terrorists for the Kashmir jihad. This will not be tolerated by Pakistan, which protects its strategic interests through proxies. If Pakistan increased pressure on Afghanistan, according to Afghan military sources, India may possibly retreat from Afghanistan, and there are clear signs that it is scaling down its presence. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and military control Afghan policy, but, unfortunately, they have failed to get a grip on the problem that now threatens to overwhelm the Pakistani state itself.

To preserve its strategic interests in Afghanistan, India will need close cooperation and coordination with Pakistan and China. India might be confronted with a rapidly changing scenario in Afghanistan. The game of interests among various actors jockeying for power can also create a problem for India. If India wants to remain in Afghanistan it must change its policy towards Pakistan. India needs to recalibrate its strategy to deal with a range of options from these unfolding scenarios. India has assured the Afghan rulers that it will address the anxiety of the post-withdrawal situation.

In her research paper published by the Asian Century Institute, Shanthie Mariet D’Souza drew the attention of the Indian rulers towards cooperating with Pakistan on the future of Afghanistan: “India will have to take a lead in preventing the reversal of decade long gains in Afghanistan in the light of receding military foot print and waning international attention. In all likelihood, this will involve forging a regional consensus on the future of Afghanistan. In chalking out a regional strategy, India will have to reach out to its extended neighbourhood and assume more leadership as a major economic power and net security provider in the region. India has signalled that it was ready to discuss the larger Afghan situation with Islamabad during foreign secretary level talks. On umpteen forums it has been clarified that both India and Afghanistan are willing to accommodate Pakistan’s genuine interests.”

India’s strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan is of much importance. Among other things in the signed agreement, the issue of security cooperation between the two states has been underlined. According to the agreement: “Security cooperation between the sides is intended to help enhance their respective and mutual efforts in the fight against international terrorism, organised crime, illegal trafficking in narcotics, money laundering and so on.” Notwithstanding all these commitments, when Afghanistan demanded military weapons from India, it kept refusing it because it would “hurt Pak sensitivities”. India continues to train Afghan forces but does not want to arm them.

Its trained Afghan forces continue to join Taliban insurgents but India never tried to build houses for the officers of the Afghan army, so they are living in rented houses. The morally weak army cannot stand on its own as the withdrawal of NATO and US forces from Afghanistan is becoming the source of uncertainties. There are speculations that India’s two billion dollars might not be sufficient to sustain the country’s engagement, its reconstruction and development activities in post-2014 Afghanistan. India wants to stay in Afghanistan with a full presence but Lashkar-e-Tayyaba is also there with its strong networks. The dismal development in parts of Afghanistan is due to the strong presence of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba in Kunar and Nooristan provinces, which could emerge as centres of anti-Indian operations. If India wants to continue the border skirmishes with Pakistan, the country will also retaliate against its strategic interests inside Afghanistan.

The writer is the author of Punjabi Taliban and can be reached at zai.musakhan222@gmail.com