Daily Times

The aggressive behaviour and provocative policies of an emerging nuclear so-called responsible state is worth noting in the current milieu. The existing elected government or, more precisely, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) aggressive military posture concerns both China and Pakistan. It was being observed at the time of the formulation of Indian foreign policy that new Prime Minister Narendra Modi was focusing on the economy and many domestic issues along with re-formulising international relations, especially with the US regarding the Indo-US nuclear deal, China, Japan and unsettled relations with its western neighbour.
There were some changes anticipated in the manifesto of the BJP: it proposed to expand its “web of allies” and that it would adopt the policy of “zero tolerance” on terrorism. Another blazing agenda on the manifesto was regarding its pledge to reconsider the nuclear doctrine of no first use, which has actually sparked a storm all around.
Gravely, the border violations are once again on our television screens and discussion forums around the globe. Albeit these border skirmishes transpire more or less rather frequently in spite of the 2003 ceasefire agreement. Incidentally, the 2003 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan has been continuously and blatantly violated for the past few years. The Line of Control (LoC) and the Working Boundary (WB) between the two nuclear-armed states, India and Pakistan, is under tense spikes of volatility and is subject to violation of the preceding agreements in this regard. A rapid and swift escalation of violence, stronger than the usual posturing from both governments, and a departure from the usual methods of resolution are what sets the current conflict apart.
It is worth mentioning here that the nature of confrontation has been changing on both sides. Even though the unfortunate cases of cross-border attacks are a time in and time out practice followed by the Indian army that is, of course, retaliated by Pakistan, the state of affairs regarding the strategy adopted by India this time is pretty different. The hardline BJP leader, Narendra Modi should be accredited fully, who proved to follow the same BJP (formerly) perceived course of action towards Pakistan notwithstanding his pre-election campaign that pretended to restore firm ties with Pakistan.
The ongoing tension on the LoC and Working Boundary actually defines the future intentions of the newly elected democratic government. More specifically, the pre-election campaign has been transformed in the way Modi wants to shape foreign policy towards Pakistan vis-à-vis the region. The contemporary scenario in this regard is stimulating a challenge to South Asian security, already under huge stress due to the likely post-2014 emerging strategic environment. Indubitably, this destabilising state of affairs not only deteriorates bilateral relations between both nations but also exacerbates regional stability along with the stronger intentions of re-shaping their military postures.
The eastern border has been the testing field of India and Pakistan’s bilateral relations. It is truly acknowledged by the Indian policymakers and political analysts that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif approached India with a hand of friendship but, in contrast, the frequent and aggressive statements by the Indian prime minister do not signal optimism across the LoC. The episode of bullets and blood cast off all expectations on both sides of the border. Regretfully, the efforts of formulising a diplomatic arrangement turned out to be worthless, for which a heavy attendance was ensured on the (so-called) invitation of the Indian PM’s grand reception.
Adding to what has by now been mentioned, the cancellation of peace talks in this regard added fuel to the fire. India will go with its cynical intentions whether these talks would have proceeded as per schedule or not. Leaving both countries’ accusations/arguments aside, the recent episode of border firing and other provocations in the first year of the new Indian political establishment, in the last quarter of 2014 (where South Asia in post-2014 is subject to several regional and global challenges), it will be perceived internationally that these acts are actually moulding Indian foreign policy and a political approach towards the gradual (intended) escalation of Indian military posturing instead of normalising its relations with Pakistan.
Nevertheless, Pakistan’s stance is quite clear by the response of Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, to his Indian counterpart Arun Jaitley’s warning that Indian forces would render any “adventurism” by Pakistan “unaffordable”. Khawaja Asif said that Islamabad had the ability to respond to Indian aggression, perceived as a veiled threat. Moreover, he said that Pakistan did not want the situation on the borders of two nuclear neighbours to escalate into confrontation Nevertheless, the response from the Pakistani military must deter and restrict India from taking such provocative actions next time, especially the killings of innocent civilians.
The above could be assessed as a major step-in to bring change to the Indian nuclear doctrine of no first use as well since to reconsider the doctrine is on the manifesto of the BJP’s potential political schedule. No matter to what extent these states opt for economic and trade reforms, stability at the unofficial boundaries, the LoC and WB, is of utmost importance for a real and long-term peace. Evidently, early gestures and responses from both countries raised expectations for a fresh start to India-Pakistan relations but, unfortunately, due to its inherent nature, India neither kept the expectations up to the mark nor was able to replace the image of Narendra Modi from that of a hardliner to that of a neutral and rational leader. Albeit the efforts to fathom fragility between India and Pakistan is not much but, if any side wants to abate these bloody cross-border fireworks, the need of the hour would be to fill the communication and understanding gap among both.

The writer works for Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad