Daily Times

As the mercury continues to drop in the coming days, the onset of winter, as always, will present the opportunity for self-reflection. And since winters arrive in the last months of the calendar, the self-reflection instinct becomes particularly intensive. All and sundry reflect on the time past and plot for the time ahead. However, while the year will be over soon enough, Pakistan’s political tribulations are anything but. Instead of engaging in active negotiations and ending the stalemate, the government and Imran Khan are still surreptitiously taking stabs at each other. Just as when Imran Khan seemed to be softening his stance by paving the way for a judicial probe into electoral rigging, an anti-terrorism court has issued arrest warrants for the PTI and PAT potentates. Khan responded by levelling allegations against institutions that are part of the intelligence establishment and this past weekend his supporters were shot at. The protest movement thus has had a new lease on life and the woes of the government continue.

Khan’s daily sermons might have become more of a weekly affair but even with a depleting attendance at the sit-in, his call for electoral reform and financial scrutiny still holds the nation’s attention. However, the rest of his antics have felt flat and he now has a lot of competition from other quarters. Sensing this, the PTI leader is allowing for some middle ground to finally be created in the debate. The songs, slogans, crowds and rhetoric, while being just polemical enough, have nonetheless failed to yield the desired outcomes. And after Tahirul Qadri left the sit-in venue last month, the PTI has been all over the place. Predictably then, the hopeful followers have been shifting between misplaced euphoria and tangible dejection on a daily basis; each dawn brings with it the prospect of rambunctious political developments but is soon engulfed in the mundane whirlpools of life by dusk.

By withdrawing his inane demand of the prime minister’s resignation, Imran Khan might be heading towards a reasonable exit but, in doing so, he has also shown his hand. Sadly, the rabblerousing ex-cricketer now offers no beneficial prospects to the government for entering into negotiations. True, the ruling regime has been severely compromised but it has nonetheless survived the tide. Let us face it: the only reason anyone ever lost sleep over the protests was because of the impending threat of (another) military intervention. With that threat now gone, Khan can only hope for a miracle while he waits to try his luck at the polls next time round. Meanwhile, leaving the stuffy confines of the Islamic Republic after reviving his domestic position, the prime minister, too, is hot on his campaign trail, touring countries with massive investment potential. It was in that vein that he welcomed the opportunity to visit China, paid a visit to the German chancellor shortly afterwards and still found time to host the new Afghan president. Not only is he rejuvenating in the newfound vigour and trying to score big on the investment front, he is also adding to his legitimacy when he is seen hobnobbing with international leaders, abroad and at home.

Internally though, both the PTI and PML-N paint a rather bleak picture. Tired from the hard-fought battles, they are getting increasingly wary of the long-drawn war. The ranks on both sides have been shaken and a general sense of fright runs deep. Before the beginning of the crisis, the poor treatment of party members by the Sharifs was no secret. And while little might have changed on that front — as perhaps Mr Khosa can testify — Imran Khan is now also letting his more domineering colours fly by punishing the dissenters among his party. However, even with harsh sentences being handed out right left and centre, there seems to be no imminent possibility of a massive exodus from either party. That spectacle is something reserved only for the election period and the Supreme Court (SC) has not declared open season just yet.

On a positive note, while the more ludicrous objectives of the protestors might have been left in the lurch, there are nonetheless redeeming outcomes that can be hailed as small triumphs. Firstly, the protests have awakened the masses to the utility of making their voices heard through numbers on the streets. Secondly, the protest movement has also alerted the government to be more aware of the rising discontent among the electorate, since neglecting the unrest can now only be done at the government’s own peril. In general, the sit-ins have made progress towards making the system relatively more alert. And we are already seeing the results in action: one noticeable change has been in the increased clout that the courts are enjoying these days. Had this not been the case, the urgency attached to the constitution of the judicial commission for investigating rigging in the 2013 elections and the appointment of the Chief Election Commissioner would not have been present. Additionally, the government will now be the subject of greater scrutiny when it comes to future planning and appointments for key positions. A rather amusing corollary of this heightened awareness is the Lahore High Court’s suave tricks to replace the chairperson of the Youth Loan Scheme, thus undoing an appointment that was seemingly made in a moment of sheer familial partiality than anything else.

So, there are encouraging outcomes that have seen the light of day in the wake of the crisis but, with each passing day, the political crunch is also engendering a prickly status quo where the finer aspects of brinksmanship are lost upon the protagonists. In this cycle, the faltering PTI, bereft of any real leverage, continues to amass massive crowds and issue ultimatums ad nauseam, while the federal government, assured of its tenure, comfortably keeps on neglecting calls for genuine reform. Now, with the forlorn D-Chowk in Islamabad poised for a revival of its glorious sit-in days at the end of this month, we can only expect more of this inert faceoff. In this situation, one can only hope that common sense will soon come to our rescue because, once the fog descends over the land, visualising perceptible objectives is going to prove that much more difficult.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations