Daily Times

The Middle East is a region undergoing rapid changes. What emerged as a civil war to oust the Assad regime in Syria, led to the creation of the Islamic State (IS) that is now threatening the geopolitical map of the region. On the other hand, after over a year of back channel contacts, the west, led by the US, is finally nearing a rapprochement with Iran. This rapprochement is making some of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) kingdoms uneasy because of the history of Iranian domination as well as the sectarian issues that are linked with a rising Iran. This rapprochement is led by Saudi Arabia, the largest kingdom in the region. On the peripheries of the Middle East, thanks to a macro-level understanding between key neighbours, Afghanistan for the first time in centuries seems to be heading towards being a stable state. And then there is a slow but ongoing process of enhanced distance between Israel and the west. These rapid changes could put any area in the world into a tailspin and when the area is as volatile as the Middle East, the jitters have to be mammoth. And so they are.

A look at all the changes taking shape in the region, and one can only conclude that the Middle Eastern order that was created after the First World War is crumbling and the balance of power is adjusting to take into account the demographic and historical realities of the region. This change, in its undercurrents, is driven by a social transformation of Middle Eastern societies from tribal to post-modern. This transformation itself will be jittery because it misses the intermediate steps of transformation to a feudal and onto an industrial society.

For one, with global and regional stakes in the region, it is unlikely that the IS in its current form will succeed in dominating the Sunni Middle East. At best, its campaign will cause misery, suffering and war but eventually the stakes are too high for regional and global players and the menace has to be dealt with. However, in the process, the IS poses a serious challenge through its campaign to desecrate the holy sites of Islam, which has the potential of stirring up a global clash of civilisations and regional clash of sects.

In the changing world, the power that Saudi Arabia acquired through its proximity with first the British and then the US will ultimately be adjusted. The current power conundrum is not sustainable for a multitude of reasons. One is demographics. With the world becoming a productivity driven place, the dominant powers will have to have sizable populations. The problem with Saudi Arabia is that it has a shrinking population and the bulk of its workforce comprises ex-pats who have not been integrated into the economy. Second is lack of economic diversity. Over the decades, Saudi Arabia has not invested enough in human capital to attain the skillset needed to lay the foundations of a broad-based economic foundation. And, in the absence of a broad-based economic foundation, challenged by the Shale Revolution and renewables, the energy economy advantage of the Saudis is bound to wane.

And then comes the question of security. Saudi security has been dependent on US involvement in the region. The US is on a course to limit its footprint around the globe because of emerging global economic realities and the Middle East is one region where this footprint will significantly shrink in years to come. That, coupled with Chinese reliance on Middle Eastern oil, will lead to a multiplayer security arrangement for the region. However, the cornerstone of such an arrangement will remain the regional players because of rising anti-western sentiment. The appetite among the masses for a new non-Muslim security arrangement is low and can well play into the hands of extremist elements.

Based on its conflict resolution with the west, a skilled diaspora, local workforce and demographics, Iran is tipped as being the regional power. Iran, because of sectarian affiliations, will also be more acceptable to Shia dominated regions in the Middle East. However, Iran alone will not be capable of bringing peace and harmony to the region, as its rise will be met with strong resistance from Sunni-Arab power centres. Iranians themselves realise this and have refused to commit to broader engagement against the IS outside the Shia-dominated regions of Iraq.

These puzzles leave room for a broader security arrangement for the Middle East, partnered by Iran and Pakistan. Iranians and Pakistanis are working, for the first time, with Afghans to ensure a smooth transition in Afghanistan. What is needed is their engagement in the Middle East, backed by the US and Chinese. Only a joint Iran-Pakistan security arrangement has the composition and power to ensure a stable and peaceful Middle East. Iran, on its part, will have to address the concerns of Sunni-led power centres in the region, just as Pakistan is doing vis-à-vis non-Pashtun power centres in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s security establishment, for its part, will have to come out of the ideological mode it has imposed on itself since the 1980s. The broader focus has to be statecraft and security of the region aimed at harmony, prosperity and cooperation. Sectarian and tribal conflicts, for the survival of the region and its power centres, can take a backseat.

The Middle East is bound to head towards post-modernity like everyone else. Whether the road remains one of harmony or bloodshed is a choice the power centres of the Middle East have to make.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik