Daily Times

The completion of a hundred years old peace agreement named “Treaty of Lausanne” by 2023 is not far away. For the last few years, debates among various geopolitical and geostrategic thinkers have gained momentum about this conundrum. During the last decade, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as a vibrant leader to international prominence in all political spheres. He is fully determined in making Turkey great again by playing a larger role in the world through trade, diplomacy and ambitious efforts at intensifying its military profile in the region. Striving to pursue a more assertive and nationalistic foreign policy indicates Erdogan’s unwavering commitment to make Turkey resurge to the past glorious era of the Ottoman Empire.

Speaking at the Anatolian Media Awards ceremony, President Erdogan said, “We work day and night to achieve Turkey’s goals for 2023 in accordance with the responsibility we have undertaken and the promise we have made. He also declared that the era beyond 2023 will be a new epoch of innumerable resounding victories and conquests, enabling us to transform the future of the entire region as per our will.”

However, the abrogation of the above-mentioned pact by 2023 gives birth to so many questions. They are as, to whether Turkey will be able to reclaim its lost empire. Will it be in a position to thrive economically? Will it emerge as dominant power across Europe and the middle east? Will it still be a member of NATO? To answer all aforementioned questions, we have to comprehend the prevailing geopolitical dynamics by delving deep into the historic perspective of the Lausanne agreement signed on 24 July 1923 until 24 July 2023.

Striving to pursue a more assertive and nationalistic foreign policy indicates Erdogan’s unwavering commitment to make Turkey resurge to the past glorious era.

The Ottoman Empire was one of the mightiest and longest-lasting dynasties in world history. This Islamic-run superpower ruled large areas of the Middle East, Eastern Europe and North Africa for more than 600 years, from the 13th century to until 20th century. During the rule, the empire started to decline for several reasons which include its over-dependence on agriculture than making advancements in industrial sectors, the majority of the population being uneducated, lack of research, the heterogeneous nature of all units with a blend of multiple ethnicities under the empire and was unable to incorporate into a single whole. Moreover, its destructive rivalry with the Soviet Union and choosing the wrong side of Germany, Bulgaria and Austro-hungry as central powers became the significant cause of its demise with severe defeat at the hands of allied powers in the first world war 1914 – 1918.

Right after the fall of the empire, the “Treaty of Severe” was signed between allied powers and Ottoman Empire on 10 August 1920 which marked the beginning of partition and dismemberment of various units from the empire. The Treaty ceded large parts of the Ottoman Empire to France, the United Kingdom, Greece, and Italy, and created large occupation zones within the Ottoman state. However, this peace accord was unacceptable for the then Mustafa Kamal Ataturk which ignited the Turk’s war of independence led by Kamal to defeat the combined armies of the signatories of the Treaty of Severe. In that bloody war, Turks achieved a tremendous victory especially in Greece between 1922 to 1923, paving the way for the Treaty of Lausanne.

This international accord was signed in the “Beau Rivage Plus hotel” in Lausanne, Switzerland. Signatories of the Treaty were the victorious powers of the First World War, especially Britain, France, Italy and the Ottoman Empire. On the basis of this treaty, the Ottoman Empire was divided, and new boundaries were demarcated which led to the establishment of the Turkish modern national state under the presidency of Mustafa Kamal Ataturk with Ankara as its capital. Turkey had to renounce its sovereignty over Cyprus, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Iraq, Levant, and Macedonia, except cities which were located in Syria such as Urfa, Adana, Gaziantep, Kells and Mrash. This also led to the demarcation of Greece and Bulgaria’s borders with the Turkish state, which maintained the annexation of Istanbul. As per the clauses of the Treaty, Turkey was restricted from drilling for oil and natural resources. The water of Bosphorus was declared as an international route and opened for shipping. The Treaty of severe was abolished. New laws and principles were formulated for Turkish water straits, traffic rules, and navigations.

According to International Laws, the stipulated treaties automatically come to their conclusion after 100 years. Under this perspective, there exist two schools of thought: one favours the expiration after 100 years and the other one opposes and is adamant about believing that once an Internationally stipulated agreement is signed, it can not be expired as long as the signatory countries are existing. They are of the view that if so happens, the treaty of Versailles would have ended now, which has exceeded its 100 years, signed on 28 June 1919.

However, If the “Treaty of Lausanne” is invalidated by 2023, it will buttress Turkey’s position to a considerable extent. It will have the right of drilling oil on its soil. Turkey will also collect tolls from every ship in return for using her water channel Bosphorus Strait. There would be a greater number of chances for Turkey to be relinquished from NATO countries. It will independently formulate its laws and policies. All these perks will certainly add to its sphere of influence across the region which will make Turkey thrive economically to a considerable extent.

Nevertheless, reverting to Ottoman Caliphate and regaining control of abandoned territories looked like an impracticable move.

For instance, had it been this easier to get back and dominate the areas once lost, today’s Russia would have returned to the Soviet Union with Poland and Central Asian Republics as its part. Likewise, India, Pakistan and some other smaller nations would have become a part of the United Kingdom until now. The current political dynamics are not what they used to have been. Now, all those states, once part of the Ottoman Empire, have flourished democratically and strengthened economically and are in a stronger position to defend their territorial integrity and safeguard their sovereignty

As 2023 is approaching fast, Erdogan is becoming actively engaged in global politics to have his say at the international level. Events, alluding to the conversion of Hagia Sofia museum into Mosque on 24 July 2020, the purchase of an S-400 missile defence system from Russia, Olive Branch a military crackdown against majority-Kurdish Afrin District of northwest Syria, occupation of northern Syria through operation Euphrates Shield by Turkish forces in Syrian Civil War and Erdogan’s active role in Afghanistan war and peace process are some key developments associated with Turkey as an emerging player on the global stage.

Erdogan’s intensive efforts at enhancing Turkey’s influence across the region and looking forward to leading the Muslim world is what the west and its allies cannot afford. Moreover, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have never been in cordial relations due to their diverging tendencies over a number of issues which include the Palestine conflict and their varying positions on Iran, Qatar, and Yemen. The conflicting interests between Turkey and KSA regarding the Syrian conflict have also brought both countries to an open antagonism. Now the complexities of the aforementioned conflicts have drawn Turkey closer to Russia and its allies China and Iran. However, The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia stand united on the opposite side. After all the nexus of China, Russia and Iran seem to be a better fit for Turkey than NATO and any other alliance.

Lastly, by observing minutely the changing geopolitical trends, Pakistan needs to revisit its foreign policy and formulate a grave strategy to catch the opportunities that Turkey may offer if it succeeds in implementing the stipulated accord. Therefore, Pakistan should devise a holistic plan comprising two phases; pre and post-2023. Pakistan and Turkey can both seek cooperation in various fields including the development of military arsenals, trade and commerce, engineering and industrial zones, infrastructure development, tourism industry, areas of medicine and lots more.

The writer is a geopolitical analyst and freelance columnist and can be reached at waseemshabbir78@gmail.com