Daily Times

With the Federal Reserve drawing down the stimulus facility, the global economy has already started feeling the jitters caused by the cash squeeze. Hopes are that the European Central Bank (ECB) will introduce its own stimulus package within the next few weeks to fill the vacuum that resulted from ending the Federal Reserve stimulus. The ECB, however, has serious limitations when it comes to offering a sustainable stimulus package. For one, European economies still remain sluggish compared to the US economy, which showed growth on the back of the technology, energy and manufacturing sectors. Secondly, most of the competitive advantage of European nations has evaporated in almost all the sectors of a modern economy. Third, Germany, being the economic engine of modern Europe, is very reluctant to increase the debt burden on its economy. Germans, of course, are very weary of a stimulus, realising that in the case of the European Union, increased debt will manifest itself in real degradation of asset values.

That leads to the more likely scenario of an ECB stimulus package that will help deter some of the impacts of the Federal Reserve tapering but will not fully replace it. That means two things for the global economy. One, the global economy will show a considerable amount of slowing down in the months ahead before a new normal is achieved. The shortage of cash will lead to an increase in interest rates across the globe. And this leads to the second possible impact on the global economy: those who have cash will be kings.

So, who has the cash? The Chinese are awash with cash and have been the dominant players in developing world infrastructure lending and corporate expansion ever since the global financial crisis. Not only this, the Chinese also remain the biggest lenders to sluggish first world economies. But China is likely to face a slowdown back home because of a potential slowdown of its export markets of the EU and US. Therefore, China will have to divert some of its cash to local consumer markets to increase the reliance of its economy on consumer spending. Also, the impact of the capacity of Chinese lending is already accommodated in the global economy.

And here comes the next big cash machine of the world, the US. It seems counter-intuitive that the US will increase its investment foothold across the globe after the drawdown of the economic stimulus. However, the deeper economic variables in play make it more obvious. Let me show you how.

Right now, US corporations are sitting on cash reserves of over five trillion dollars, according to Forbes. As per Bloomberg, as of March 2014, large non-financial corporations like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Verizon, Chevron and others held almost $ 1.64 trillion. This is serious cash that is ready to be put to use. This actually merits three pertinent questions. One, how did US corporations get hold of this much cash? Two, why have they not started investing it globally as yet? Three, what makes it ripe for them to globally invest this cash now?

US corporations held so much cash because there was plenty of cash to begin with. The Federal Reserve stimulus left the US economy awash with cash and in the absence of growth opportunities in the US domestic market compared to the capital available, most of the cash got parked onto the balance sheet, mostly in the form of treasuries and other liquid securities. As long as the stimulus continued, the global economy was performing at the pace that made the Chinese comfortable to invest back in the developed world, as well as lend to infrastructure in the developing world. That left little opportunity for good returns on investments across the globe.

Once the stimulus is withdrawn, the US economy will lose some of its spending capacity. That will mean a slowdown of the economy globally with European and Asian exports to the US declining. This will have a spiral impact of slowing down of economies the world over. China and the EU will try to cover this slowdown by offering their own stimulus packages that will lead to strengthening of the US dollar. This strong dollar will not be a good sign for US exports but, with corporations awash with cash, this will offer an ideal opportunity to purchase assets overseas through debt and equity investments. The impact of the capital squeeze itself will lead to higher returns on investment. And since US corporations hold most of this cash, they will put it to good use by embarking on a global expansion spree.

So wait for the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Chevron to enhance their global footprint through entering new markets, buying out companies in Europe and Asia and investing in start-ups across the globe through their venture and investment arms. We will also come across a round of bond financing to developing sovereigns and thus all of this will lead to the US establishing itself firmer as the capital market of the world. The difference this time will be that most of the investment in the developing world will come directly from corporates, unlike the previous investments that came through Overseas Private Investment Corporations (OPICs) or the like in case of the west or through the Chinese banking system in case of China. The US is poised to increase its foothold in the global economy in the years ahead and the world better be ready for the next cycle of US expansion to make the most of it.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik