Daily Times

After the marathon Lausanne talks between Iran, and the P5+1 countries, the parties seem to have agreed the outline of a nuclear deal. Since some disagreements and mutual mistrust remain, a preliminary agreement has been reached pending further negotiations down the road. The deal is scheduled to be ratified by June 30. The agreement, according to the US, includes cutting down Iran’s centrifuges to one third and bringing down Iran’s stock of enriched uranium to just 300 kilogrammes. Furthermore, Iran will not be allowed to enrich any uranium for the next 10-15 years. The main nuclear reactor is to be dismantled but it has not been decided how the stockpile of uranium will be disposed of. These technical details will need to be worked out and the west will have to take into account whether these restrictions will ensure Iran does not continue its alleged march to nuclear weapons. The US says Iran must follow these terms before all sanctions (except for those related to human rights issues) are lifted and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will monitor all nuclear activities through the most intrusive inspections ever.

Despite Obama’s commitment to securing the deal by the end of his presidency, it remains unclear whether he has sufficient time and leverage to do so. Once an agreement is reached between Iran and the west, Obama will need to convince the US Republican-dominated Congress to go along. The Republicans have strongly opposed the deal and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been aggressively trying to convince the US that this deal would “pave the way” for an Iranian bomb. Obama does need to push for severe restrictions on Iran’s nuclear research facilities and uranium enrichment to convince the US Congress and Israel that this deal will curb Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons rather than facilitate it. Yet the Iranian government is resisting measures that will totally disenfranchise Iran’s nuclear research and power generation programmes. While Iran is willing to compromise to end the sanctions that have crippled its economy, Foreign Minister Zarif has stated that the “proud Iranian people” will not succumb to excessive or coercive conditions. Both parties will have to compromise to come up with a comprehensive deal, but with many a slip still between cup and lip, the odds seem even.
Right after the marathon talks in Lausanne, when Iran and the west had reached a tenuous agreement, Obama, Iran and western representatives all seemed optimistic and referred to the negotiations as a historic success. Upon his return to Iran, Zarif received a hero’s welcome, reflecting the Iranian people’s frustration at being international pariahs for decades and their eagerness to restore their economy and status in the world. However, Iran and the US have both released fact sheets about the agreement that differ on some key issues. To ensure the US Congress’ confidence in the deal, Obama has been reiterating that sanctions will be restored if Iran violates the terms, a sentiment that Iran has recently echoed, saying that they will continue with their nuclear programme if sanctions are restored without justification. Although both parties remain committed to finalising the deal, it is clear that mistrust lingers on all sides and without overcoming this, Iran could find itself in a standoff with the west once again.*