Daily Times

The Middle East has been immersed in turmoil for various reasons ever since the Arab Spring started with Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in Tunisia on December 18, 2010. Thus, separating the permutations and combinations of allies and foes in any country or sub-region in the Middle East is mindboggling. Beset with multiple crises ourselves, mostly of our own making, we are desperately attempting to blunder into another complication, one that could severely exacerbate the existing fragile fault lines in our society, a potential ‘Pakistani Spring’.
Working out who is in alliance with whom in the civil war in Yemen, which has been festering for some time, is almost impossible. The Houthi rebels (supported by army units loyal to former President Ali Saleh) seized the capital of Sanaa before moving on to capture other parts of the country. Reportedly given material support by Iran, the Houthi rebels of the Zaidi Shia sect operated, until recently, in their own region bordering Saudi Arabia in North Yemen. Their “Iranian connection” alarmed the Saudis about the emerging threat to their sovereignty. Due to intermittent hostilities with the Houthis along the Yemeni border since 2009, the Saudis suffered several hundred casualties in a brief flare-up several months ago. Given the threat of an Iranian supported regime controlling the southern edge of the Saudi Arabian peninsula, Arab nations are determined to roll back Houthi success and reinstate incumbent President Hadi, who has even fled his temporary haven in the port city of Aden. Aircrafts from half a dozen Arab countries have rendered Sanaa airport unusable and have targeted Houthi concentrations in many other cities in the past week, causing substantial collateral damage. Though not taking a part in the conflict physically, the US is providing real-time intelligence for the planning of coordinated and accurate air strikes.
In a meeting in Sharm al Sheikh, the heads of 22 nations of the Arab League agreed upon a joint Arab military force with six countries volunteering participation. Egypt, a prime beneficiary of Saudi financial aid, immediately pledged substantial air, sea and land forces. It will take time for the proposed force of 40,000 strong to become operational. Egypt seems to have forgotten its horrible, decade long experience in Yemen in the 1960s when the Houthi Royalists were fighting the Egyptian supported Republicans. This war was Egypt’s own Vietnam, with over 15,000 of the 50,000 soldiers of the expeditionary force dying in battle. After a decade of slaughter, Nasser agreed to sign a peace treaty and the Egyptian contingent was withdrawn. Hell bent on destroying Iran’s nuclear capacity and with a vested interest in keeping the present Egyptian regime led by President General Sisi secure, Israel has become a de facto but silent member of the so-called ‘Sunni coalition’. Conversely, Israel clandestinely supported the Royalists against the Egyptians in the 1960s.
Suffering dramatic reversals at the hands of Islamic State (IS) or Daesh, US training teams regrouped and fast tracked the training of Iraqi forces. Ironically, Iranian militia and Iraqi forces attempting to take back Tikrit are protesting US involvement in airstrikes against Daesh concentrations. Proxies supported by Turkey and Jordan are already combating Iranian proxies supporting Assad’s regime in Syria. Inbuilt tensions are threatening to tear apart the coalitions of convenience formed on an ad hoc basis to fight the forces of disorder on the one hand and those of order on the other in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen.
Pakistan is facing a catch 22 situation: it is damned if it joins the Saudi led Sunni coalition and damned if it does not. The generosity of the Saudis during our times of need and the deep felt urge of most able bodied Pakistanis to volunteer to safeguard the territorial integrity of the Muslim holy lands against aggression from any quarter puts us in a bind over how to assist the Saudis. Given our ongoing and unfinished fight to eradicate terrorism from its roots and with our resources already badly overstretched, would we be able to spare troops to join such a coalition? It would be morally wrong to become part of the Sunni coalition; not only would this move jeopardise our friendly ties with our western neighbour, Iran, but the perception of taking sides in a possible Shia-Sunni divide would trigger an apocalypse within the country. The fault lines that exist just beneath the surface would be exploited by terrorists and others to exacerbate sectarian divides.
The Pakistan government has denied sending troops to join the coalition and a ministerial evaluation team will “assess the situation on the ground”. The Saudi official news agency however, quoted Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif pledging “the entire potential of our Armed Forces to Saudi Arabia”. How very generous of him! Those wishing us ill, including some of our politicians, would certainly like the Army to jump into the fray and be cut to size. If we do provide material support within the Saudi territorial limits, the guarantee must be that our troops will not become part of the “Coalition” and will only combat hostiles if and when they breech the border.
One mechanised brigade was separated from Pakistan’s main task force at Tabuk and placed at Nagran on the Yemen border during Operation Desert Storm in the first Gulf War (1991). This step freed Saudi troops for operations in Iraq and Kuwait. It was established that Pakistani troops would defend the Kingdom but would not cross the border. Egyptian forces did not cross the border either but while Egypt had its entire debt of $ 12-15 billion written off, we received a pittance in comparison. A similar arrangement could be made now, with a mandate for not crossing the international border. Hostile artillery fire and the threat of scud missiles across the border must be exceptions that call for neutralisation. Another option would be to equip a skeleton force with weapons, vehicles and equipment to create a mechanised division. With the imminent danger of Houthi rebels (or anyone else for that matter) transgressing into Saudi territory, this force can be supported aerially within hours by troops already earmarked for this purpose. Our mission must be clearly defined as separate from the proposed joint Arab military force and outside the control of their command structure. Fortunately, the naming of the force as Arab gives us a face saving out. Instead of prolonging the conflict that could cause us endless domestic grief, our historical ties with the proxy antagonists in Yemen can facilitate bringing peace to the strife ridden nation. Both Pakistan and Turkey, President Erdogan’s recent comments about Iran notwithstanding, can play a great role in defusing the situation. Ours should be a coalition of convenience to contain further conflict and facilitate peace in Yemen.

The writer is a defence analyst and security expert