Daily Times

Pakistan’s parliament has unanimously passed a resolution to stay neutral in the Yemen conflict while assuring complete support to Saudi Arabia against any violation of the Kingdom’s territorial integrity. The resolution is one of the better foreign policy decisions Pakistan has made. The decision, however, has attracted a backlash from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) players, which ranges for disappointment to threats. The strongest response came from the UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, Mr Anwar Gargash, in which he warned Pakistan of strong repercussions. The response from Saudi Arabia was of mild disappointment, terming the resolution Pakistan’s internal affair while hoping for Pakistan’s cooperation in the Yemen conflict. On sides, Pakistan and Turkey are engaging with the Iranians to try to peacefully end the conflict but the key sticking point thus far is the Iranian call for an immediate ceasefire as a precondition for the start of negotiations while Saudi Arabia insists on restoration of the Yemeni regime before negotiations can begin for a power sharing arrangement.
In parliament’s resolution, Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif showed magnanimity in referring the matter to parliament and accepting parliament’s decision despite his personal relations with the Saudis. However, the PM and his team, because of their mishandling of the whole issue, have caused considerable disappointment among Pakistan’s friends in the GCC. Mr Sharif is probably missing sane counsel on issues of national security and foreign affairs and that, probably, was reflected in him fondly remembering his consultations with Senator Mushahid Hussain in his last term in power. As the pressure from Saudis and other GCC countries will grow for Pakistan’s cooperation, it seems both the civilian and military leaderships of the country are ill-equipped to make a rational decision because of their partial blindness to the situation on the ground. It is about time the country conducts a strategic review of the situation in the Middle East while forming a comprehensive Middle East policy.
The Middle East is complex and the objectives and relations of various actors are not as straightforward as are considered. Even the unified GCC alliance is not as unified in its objectives. For example, first there are non-state actors like Islamic State (IS). Just when the Saudis and Qataris covertly backed and probably still back IS in their assault against the Assad regime and against Shia forces in Iraq, they now feel threatened by the growing reach of IS and will not tolerate any IS assault on Saudi Arabia or Jordan. Then there is this issue of sectarianism. Just when the Sunni/Salafi monarchs of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait feel vulnerable because of large Shia populations in their kingdoms, this is not a major concern for the rulers of Oman and UAE.
Then there is the GCC’s fear of Iran. Even here, the reasons and objectives are different for different GCC nations. Oman, for instance, has always practiced the policy of neutrality and has even refused to join the GCC coalition in Yemen. The Iranian fear stems from reasons sectarian as well as related to the energy economy. In case of the energy economy, because of large reserves of both natural gas and oil, Iran, post-sanctions, will have a decisive say in both oil and natural gas markets by virtue of controlling the demand and supply of substitute fuels. It can choose to push natural gas, which will severely undermine Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE that rely heavily on oil income. In pushing natural gas, Iran has a natural ally in Qatar but it will be a challenge to Qatar’s ambitions to control the regional natural gas market. Thus, though all GCC countries are united in checking Iran’s muscle flexing in their backyard, they have different objectives and visions vis-à-vis dealing with a rising Iran.
In the face of a rising Iran, amid inadequate armed forces and a growing aversion to western troops in the Arab world, Pakistan becomes central to the security of the GCC. I have been writing about this for years now and, in the last few weeks, GCC countries have formally approached Pakistan with the request. In this scenario, Pakistan will have to walk a tight rope balancing the GCC’s security concerns with its own desire of not getting involved in a sectarian conflict that comes to haunt it back home. What are also at stake are the economic ties between some GCC countries and Pakistan, and the potential economic ties with post-sanctioned Iran. Right now, foremost in the region is Pakistan’s relation with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan will have to chalk out a Middle East policy that enhances cooperation with our GCC friends without provoking Iran.
For this, Pakistan should ensure our key GCC allies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, that any external threat to their territorial integrity, be it by IS or the Houthis, will invoke Pakistan’s military engagement on the allies’ behalf. Pakistan can commit to sending troops in the region with the explicit condition of them being used only to quash external attacks. In case of internal uprisings in GCC countries, Pakistan should consider interventions on a case-to-case basis through parliament. Pakistan, in cooperation with Turkey, should use its diplomatic clout to engage Iran and GCC nations in establishing a new status quo in the region that protects the interests of all key players while accommodating a rising Iran aimed at ensuring peace in the region. It should also encourage its GCC friends to open up their social and political systems for the sake of stability and for protection of their own self-interests.
Pakistan should not be seen as a party to any conflict like in Yemen or any other sectarian conflict. Short of that, any security and diplomatic engagement in the Middle East will serve the interests of Pakistan as well as the region.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik