Burgeoning crises have made governance more challenging than ever for Nawaz Sharif. Homegrown terrorism, disturbance on the eastern border, Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Karachi operation and strong opposition from the PTI have all been testing the nerves of the veteran politician and third time Prime Minister (PM) for the past few months. The crisis in the Middle East and the Saudi demand to involve Pakistani troops at an operational level in Yemen was yet another difficult situation, involving quick decisions and sensitive diplomatic efforts. Nawaz Sharif, if he wanted, could have precluded parliament and directly made the decision regarding Pakistan’s role in Yemen. However, he chose the democratic, and safest path, referring it to parliament, which has proven a very wise and effective strategy. This discreet diplomatic move can be rightly appreciated in the context of the five-member delegation from Saudi Arabia and a volatile, non-diplomatic threat of negative consequences from the UAE’s foreign minister.
The Yemen crisis is not only limited to the notion of fighting against terrorists; it boasts a touch of sectarianism as well and its ramifications involve a divide amongst Muslim countries, a situation in which it is not advisable for a country like Pakistan to become party with one entity. Shias around the globe, at least morally, are supporting the Saudi-termed Yemeni rebels in a crisis that has boiled down to Shia-Sunni conflict. Shias in Pakistan have already voiced their concern. Iran’s foreign minister, during his visit to Pakistan, has also appraised Pakistan with Iran’s concerns regarding the Yemen conflict.
Pakistan’s role in the post-9/11 situation, a one-man decision, did not earn any good fame or financial prosperity for the country. Therefore, very valid concerns have been raised by a segment of Pakistani society on how, in the backdrop of the unresolved Kashmir and Palestine issues, and the army’s commitments on multiple fronts, it would be appropriate for Pakistan to physically participate in a war in the Middle East. Pakistan has strong religious, political and strategic ties with Saudi Arabia. On many occasions Saudi ‘oxygen’ has revitalised and rescued the politically suffocated leaders of Pakistan, not to mention the periodic direct and indirect financial assistance provided to us by the generous Saudi leadership. On the other hand, Pakistan, besides having a considerable Shia population, shares a permanent border with Iran and cannot afford diplomatic jeopardy on this front. If Pakistan had launched its troops, a seriously negative message to Shia Muslims around the globe would have been sent. The delicate decision here involved maintenance of our relationship with Saudi Arabia without disassociating our concerns from the Shias. A well thought out decision and a joint parliamentary session to play the role of mediation instead of direct involvement in the combat is the optimal response to Saudi demand.
The Yemen crisis, though horrific in nature, has earned the government some fringe benefits as well. The government has been successful in setting up a precedence of referral-to-parliament for all future decision making, which will no longer remain the prerogative of a single man, a practice that has been behind many political upheavals in Pakistan. The return of the PTI to parliament has been a pleasant development, which will strengthen democracy in Pakistan. However, the most interesting outcome of the Yemen debate has been the reaction of some religious parties, itching to play a role in national politics. They have orchestrated nationwide events to reiterate the invalid stance of a threat to the holy places in Saudi Arabia, a simple case of facts distortion to emotionally charge and attract people, perhaps to gain their sympathies and monetary support.
Terrorists on the run in the tribal areas of Pakistan have changed their strategy towards the rest of the country. Their new strategy involves complete compartmentalisation and zero communication amongst each other. Intelligence agencies, which are heavily technology dependent, are finding it difficult to intercept their activities and future plans. With constantly changing terror dynamics, a focused effort, effectively being made by Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies, to anticipate and counter their nefarious agendas is required. Therefore, opening a new front in Yemen would have had serious repercussions on the domestic front.
Secondly, the inability, up till now, to deal with terror outfits is hugely attributable to the chronic problem of misunderstandings and resulting confusions between the civil and military establishments. To uproot terrorism it is absolutely imperative to have unity in the civil and military leaderships. Decision making and strategy formulation to deal with the recent political turbulence in the country reflect a civil-military harmony that, undoubtedly, is a defeat to terrorists and a guarantee of national safety. I think my friends from the PTI will agree that the dharna (sit-in) failure was a blessing in disguise for the country because, in the thick of multiple challenges, this was not the right time to topple the government.
The author is a director PID
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