Daily Times

The upcoming year awaits us all with significant changes expected to take place in regards to the hot seat in the White House. Every nation, from every corner of the world, will have its eyes set on the outcome of these elections because that is just how important being the president of the US is. The upcoming year will also mark an end to the tenure of President Barack Obama who was inaugurated as the US president in 2009 and, later, elected to a second term in power.

A thriving oil industry, increased power and leverage provides the president with an opportunity to run for a consecutive third term. However, this seems highly unlikely to happen due to a considerably large number of reasons. Be it the healthcare reforms or the nuclear deal with Iran, Barack Obama is experiencing a sharp decrease in approval ratings and fellow Democrats have also chosen to silently distance themselves from, arguably, the most powerful man in the world. Chances are further lessened by the 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution that sets a term limit for election to the office of president and attempts to repeal the amendment seem highly unlikely.

When Barack Obama was re-elected as the president, it gave birth to mixed feelings among the people of Pakistan. Heartbreakingly enough, having Hussain as his middle name did not result in him having a soft corner for Muslims all over the globe.

A lack of clarity in the US approach towards terrorism in Pakistan resulted in a chaotic situation that jeopardised efforts and operations against the Taliban. For the most part of his tenure, President Obama and his policies remained unclear as to what actually is the best way to deal with the large threat posed by the Taliban; negotiations or military action? Poor coordination between the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan assisted greatly in making matters worse.

One of the greatest accomplishments, one that no other president can ever boast about, was the assassination of Osama bin Laden. It would not be wrong to say that the assassination played a pivotal role in Obama gaining instant popularity despite poor policies and an equally poor economy. The operation was carried out by US Navy Seals in Abbottabad without the knowledge of Pakistani intelligence agencies. The accomplishment came at the cost of violating Pakistan’s sovereignty and, therefore, falls under the same category as unannounced drone strikes. President Obama did not take interest in ensuring durable peace between India and Pakistan and ended up doing nothing to resolve the Kashmir dispute between both the countries.

Pakistan cannot run away and distance itself from the superpower that the US is. The US presidential elections really do matter for Pakistan as they will have a considerably large impact on Pakistan’s future as well. Candidates are being scrutinised in an attempt to find one with an adequate personal history with Pakistan and a rather sympathetic approach.

History tells us that the Republicans are more pro-Pakistan whereas the Democrats are believed to be pro-India. General Zia’s administration proved to be beneficial for the USgovernment in Afghanistan and was followed by large in-flows of the, now cursed, US aid. The aid dried up during the tenure of a Democrat, Bill Clinton, only to be resumed again during the time of George Bush, a Republican. However, in today’s world, one cannot judge with complete certainty and confidence whether or not a US president can be truly pro-Pakistan.

Of all the candidates that are contesting the presidential elections, Hilary Clinton is a face well-known in Pakistan as a result of her time as the foreign minister. Bearing in mind the presidential limits, it would not be wrong to suggest that Hilary Clinton is running for either her husband, Bill Clinton, or current president Barack Obama’s third term. It is difficult for a nominee of the same party as the sitting president to run away from links and speculations relating to the president who has been in power for the past six years.

The association has its advantages too along with a list of negatives. Clinton might be able to benefit from Obama’s winning voter coalition of women, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians and voters with relatively low income levels. All in all, Clinton will have both the 42nd as well as the 44th presidents of the US campaigning for her, which gives her a healthy edge over all her opponents. Hilary Clinton is most likely to be elected as the first female and the 45th president of the US but what does that bring to the table for Pakistan?

Relations between Pakistan and the US deteriorated during the tenure of Bill Clinton. All channels of bilateral aid were closed, no military assistance was provided and economic embargos were placed on Pakistan. The volume of Pakistani exports decreased, Pakistan suffered huge losses in the world trade market and found itself under huge domestic and external debts. To say the least, Clinton came as a bad omen for a developing Pakistan. Clinton never seemed to acknowledge the democratic rights and sovereignty of Pakistan, and so it reflected in his policies. A third term for Bill Clinton in the form of his wife Hilary Clinton will not be received well by both the authorities and the general public of Pakistan.

Hilary Clinton herself has also, time and again, expressed her deep distrust of Pakistan. Clinton was the secretary of state when Osama was found and assassinated in Pakistan, and immediately voiced her opinion that portrayed Pakistan as a country supportive of al Qaeda and extremist groups when it is actually Pakistan, and not the US, that has suffered the most as a result of the war against terrorism. Along with these claims, Clinton also went on to voice her opinion, presented as the truth with no factual backing, according to which the assassination of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto was jointly plotted by al Qaeda and the intelligence services of Pakistan.

Clinton has openly criticised Pakistan on several occasions and upon becoming president, her opinion is not expected to change drastically. Expect her tenure to yield increased negativity for Pakistan and decrease, if not shutdown, the in-flow of dollars in the form of aid.

The writer is a freelance columnist