Daily Times

The issue of nuclear, chemical
and biological terrorism in South Asia has been the centre of debate in the international press since the establishment of Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. The acquisition of chemical and biological weapons by IS has exacerbated the frustration of the international community that these weapons have fallen into the wrong hands. Pakistan is aware of the lethality of the group’s brutal tactics in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Indian intelligence recently sounded the alert after reports that the spread of IS in Pakistan and Afghanistan poses a great security threat to India. An Indian intelligence official told Hindustan Times that the presence of IS in Jalalabad and other parts of Afghanistan poses a serious threat to India. IS and other terrorist groups want to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons through theft, as gifts, or by purchasing them. According to research reports, some governments, including in Syria and Iraq, have been providing weapons training and funds to jihadist groups.
The availability of biological and nuclear explosives in South Asian markets, the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan and their changing relations with China, the US and Russia have raised serious questions about the jihadists’ intentions of retrieving modern nuclear missile technologies. Pakistan and India have been updating their nuclear arsenal for a decade. In 2000, Pakistan established the National Command Authority and, in 2003, India set up a Nuclear Command Authority to manage their nuclear weapons. Since India has not conducted any military attack inside Pakistan, the latter has claimed that this is evidence of its nuclear deterrence at work. In 1999, during the Kargil war, Pakistan-backed militants attacked across the LoC. India was in a panic and could not devise a plan to respond to the Pakistan-backed mujahideen incursion. The Indian military leaders had decided to enter a limited war against Pakistan but as Indian secret services (RAW) failed to truly interpret Pakistan’s motives, the planned war was postponed. In his book, RAW’s chief Major General V K Singh regrets the performance of his intelligence agency during the Kargil war: “After the Kargil intrusion in 1999, the government constituted the Kargil Review Committee to go into the intelligence failure that contributed to the fiasco. When the report was placed before parliament, about 15 pages dealing with intelligence were removed, on grounds of security. Not one of the honourable members sitting in the house questioned the implied insult and aspersion on their integrity.” Just two years after the Kargil war, an attack on the Indian parliament led to a six months standoff. The Kargil war offered scholars an opportunity to analyse how nuclear states had entered into a dangerous war.
More than 1,000 soldiers from India and Pakistan were killed in Kargil. During the war, the Indian army was deeply frustrated and was unable to rapidly deploy large-scale conventional forces along Pakistan’s border. Two years later, from 2001 to 2002, Indian security forces were again embarrassed due to the unprofessional Parakram Operation. The implementation of the Cold Start strategy was also delayed, as was evident by the lack of an Indian military response to the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008. Political pressure from the government notwithstanding, General Khalid Kidwai played an important role in the organisational structure of the Strategic Planning Division (SPD) but, after his retirement, some changes were made to the SPD.
After retiring, General Kidwai remained chief advisor on Pakistan’s nuclear policy during the General Musharraf, President Zardari and Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif regimes. He also consulted for the US, which caused a controversy involving him and Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. General Kidwai is an expert on nuclear security and management. In a recent Carnegie conference on nuclear policy, Pakistan openly threatened that in case of an attack from India it would use its nuclear weapons. Broadly speaking, the two countries are operating in a strategically competitive environment where their dangerous weapons have become a constant threat to the peace and stability of the region. India and Pakistan have been involved in a war of words for decades. In June 2015, three official statements from the Indian leadership caused tension between the two states. No doubt, the Modi administration adopted an aggressive stance towards Pakistan and sought strategic space to start a limited war. In fact, any raid inside Pakistan’s territory would risk a nuclear war. Serious risks of nuclear war will remain present as long as there is no mutually acceptable solution to the Kashmir issue.
In countering the Indian nuclear threat, the Pakistani army attaches importance to the development of short-range nuclear-capable systems and tactical nuclear weapons. India is also striving to develop nuclear missiles to achieve a strategic deterrent against Pakistan and China, whose strategic capabilities are growing. The recent modernisation of China’s land-based ballistic missile force, which the country has equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), is a bigger challenge for India. The recent annual report of the US military command on Chinese missile technology development indicated that the Chinese army has shown an interest in developing technology for MIRVs. Military experts in the US understand that a Chinese MIRV missile will be adorned with multiple warheads, allowing a single missile to hit a number of different targets at once.
In addition to China, Russia is also interested in a fair rapprochement with Pakistan. Military cooperation between the two states has become irksome for the Indian army. As a strong military power, the Russian strategic missile force (RVSN) will have a modern inventory of silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by 2020. At present, the RVSN possesses 400 ICBMs. The 100-tonne Sarmat ICBM with a range of 5,500 km is expected to replace the current Satan by 2018-20. According to chief engineer of Russia’s Almaz-Antey Defence Corporation, Pavel Sozinov, the Russian military is working on its own missile defence system (MDS), similar to the terminal high altitude area defence (THAAD) and ground based midcourse defence (GMD) of the US. China and Pakistan have agreed to boost maritime security cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
China will sell eight diesel electric air independent propulsion (AIP) equipped submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons to Pakistan. Like the US signed a strategic partnership agreement with India, Pakistan decided to approach Russia for military ties. In November 2014, Russian Defence Minister Sergie Shoigu visited Islamabad and signed a military cooperation agreement with Pakistan. Russia too has lifted the arms embargo on Pakistan. The recent report of the UK police about the MQM’s foreign links have raised serious question about Indian funding of groups and political parties in Pakistan. However, Pakistan is going to formally raise the issue of Indian interference in the country at the United Nations.

The writer is the author of Punjabi Taliban and can be reached at zai.musakhan222@gmail.com