US President Trump unilaterally withdrew in May 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal called JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), signed by P5+1(permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the Europen Union) and Iran in 2015 under the Obama Administration. His imposition of new sanctions on countries buying Iranian oil (primarily China, India, and Japan) to economically cripple Iran amounts to cornering the proverbial cat.
The credit for the development goes to his hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton who is notorious for advocating and plotting regime changes in Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Yemen, Syria, Libya and Venezuela. The US has moved its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier – USS Abraham Lincoln – and strategic bombers to the Gulf region. It already has military bases in the Gulf region and Afghanistan. Its allies in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are ready to join in the war. British Navy frigates are likely to join the US 5thMaval Fleet already stationed at Bahrain i.e. next to Saudi Arabia.
The developments have given rise to speculation. A military invasion of Iran is the leading possibility, though not a probability. Some mysterious attacks on Saudi and Emirate commercial ships at the UAE port of Fujairah have been reported followed by a drone strike at a Saudi pipeline station causing massive damage. Before these events, the Houthi militia from Yemen has regularly targeted the KSA. The KSA has blamed Iran for supplying long-range missiles to the Houthis and called for surgical strikes against Iran. The strikes might target Iran’s naval and missile capabilities, oil fields and suspected nuclear sites, the IRGC Headquarters. US cold go it alone or along with some allies, including the KSA and even Israel. The preparations seem complete to trigger a new round of conflict targeting yet another Muslim country after the pulverization of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Sudan.
Both US and Iranian presidents have said that war is not an option and diplomatic efforts are already afoot. Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif has visited Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Turkmenistan and Japan to keep the oil sales intact. Ironically, war drums being beaten in Iran are accompanied by slogans against the KSA instead of the US. Any accident or provocation is likely thus to bring Iran and the KSA in direct military conflict. A likely outcome is the destruction of economy, oil reserves, precious infrastructure and human resource of all Muslim countries in the region.
The preparations appear to be complete to trigger a new round of major conflict targeting yet another Muslim country after the pulverization of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Sudan
With or without a major conflict, the mere military build up by US and its allies in the region serves several purposes i.e. GCC countries will spend most of the money on buying arms and munitions raising their defence budgets beyond their capacity keeping US and Allies’ defence industry and economy buoyant (already over $100 billion plus), ensure safe and uninterrupted flow of energy and trade through the Strait of Hormuz, checkmate China’s economic influence in the region and hinder the BRI, undermine the Chinese String of Pearls by establishing more and more naval ports in the Asian-Pacific, put to test the Russian alliance with Iran and get them out at least from Syria.
The worst scenario could draw Pakistan into the conflict, spoil its relations with Iran, instigate a sectarian divide and give a fillip to the covert war in Pakistan.
A third world war is a possibility, however, remote.
It is time for China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, the Central Asian Republics, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Organisation of Islamic Conference countries to move the UN Security Council as well as the UN General Assembly to play their role for global peace. The SCO and CSTO countries should join hands to prevent hostilities in the region. George Carlin said: Those who dance are considered insane by those who cannot hear the music.” The same is true for war drums.
The writer is a retired army officer with experience in military and intelligence diplomacy