There better be more than a grain of truth in Finance Minister Miftah Ismail’s claim that the economy, especially the rupee, will turn around in a couple of weeks. IMF’s latest announcement, that Pakistan has finally met the last pending prior condition for the combined seventh and eighth reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), certainly lends weight to his statement. But will that be enough to put a floor under the market till late August, when the Fund’s board meeting is due “provided adequate financing arrangements are confirmed”? Inflation for July has already clocked in at about 25pc, the highest level since October 2008, despite the tight monetary policy that’s hurting businesses and households alike. Also, the rupee recovered very mildly following IMF’s reassurance, and stocks bounced as well, but the crisis of confidence in the Balance of Payments (BoP) remains and unless and until the rest of the bailout funds arrive, markets will remain shaky. So, even if there is a clear green light in August, there’s still the matter of keeping things from getting consistently worse till then, which is no small order. Nobody needs to be reminded that the devaluation not only makes imports much more expensive, it also inflates the debt geometrically. It must also be noted that the IMF has been a little unfair with the government over the last few months. It is, of course, understandable that it would set watertight conditions after the experience with the previous administration, especially the way it upset the bailout program by freezing energy prices, but it’s now kept the program in limbo for a good quarter even though the government has literally bent over backwards to accommodate all its demand. And now it’s last condition, of doubling the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) from Rs10 to Rs20 per litre for petrol and Rs5 to Rs10 per litre for diesel for the first half of August 2022, has eroded what was left of the ruling coalition’s political capital, hopefully it will stick to its word and not ask for more. We will have to wait a few more weeks till the Fund’s executive board’s meeting to find out. *