It turns out that there’s a $4billion shortfall in foreign reserves even after the resumption of the IMF bailout program. That explains why the dollar made a return to form against the rupee even after the announcement. Yet while the finance minister is convinced the gap will be filled in time to keep the currency from collapsing any further and, of course, also rule out any chance of default anytime soon, it’s how he’s arranging the emergency funds that also raises some concerns. “We think that we will get $1.2b in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. We think that a foreign country will invest between $1.5b to $2b in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment and yet another friendly country will make some deposits,” is how he explained it. But what if what he thinks does not turn out to be true and the country he hopes will “perhaps give us gas” finds better clients? Will the rupee fall further through the floor, pushing us tumbling into default in that case? Perhaps the finance minister should shed some light on the contingency plan as well, because with so many ifs and buts there’s a very real possibility of his ministry falling a little short in its quest for emergency dollars. The sad fact of the matter is that the economy is in deep crisis and really not very far from sovereign default. This fiscal year alone we need to cough up more than $40b dollars in debt payment. And if we have to bend over backwards for a couple of billion, and then, too, count on good luck to get it, there’s no doubt that we have our work cut out for us. The best way to proceed in such circumstances is to ensure complete transparency. That’s a little difficult to do when the political temperature is so high, no doubt, but if the people are kept in the dark when they need clarity, they tend to take it out at the next election. So the sooner the truth comes out the better for all parties concerned. *