Daily Times

Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan had mixed reactions in Pakistan as well as in India. Debate is raging on whether his visit to Pakistan was preplanned or whether he just decided on the spur of the moment that he should stop over in Pakistan. However, it is said that Narendra Modi came to Pakistan to wish PM Nawaz Sharif a happy birthday and also to congratulate him on the wedding of his granddaughter. Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry, while briefing the media about the Indian PM’s visit, said that Mr Modi had telephoned PM Nawaz Sharif and had expressed his desire to visit Pakistan on his way back from Kabul to which the latter said he was most welcome. Aizaz Chaudhry, in a press briefing, said it was agreed that the foreign secretaries of both countries would meet in mid-January in Islamabad.

In fact, the die for resumption of dialogue was cast when Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif exchanged pleasantries on the sidelines of the 21st UN Climate Change Conference in Paris on November 30, 2015. The real breakthrough came after more than a decade in the first week of this month in Bangkok where delegations led by the National Security Advisors (NSAs) of India and Pakistan met. India’s ministry of external affairs had stated that “the discussions covered peace and security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir, and other issues, including tranquility along the Line of Control (LoC).” Later, in the Heart of Asia Conference in Islamabad, India and Pakistan agreed to resume structured dialogue. Sushma Swaraj in Islamabad said: “We have decided to restart the comprehensive bilateral dialogue, earlier known as composite dialogue and later on as resumed dialogue, will now be known as the comprehensive bilateral dialogue.”

It was agreed that all issues including Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek and water would be discussed. In view of the above statements and willingness to discuss all issues including Kashmir, Narendra Modi appears to have realised that if he continues his policy of belligerence and confrontation, he will not be able to achieve his objectives of economic targets and India’s desire to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council (SC). PM Nawaz Sharif has always been an ardent believer of peace with neighbours; he showed a gesture of goodwill by attending the oath-taking ceremony of PM Narendra Modi but India did not reciprocate and secretary-level talks were cancelled on the pretext that Kashmiri leaders had met Pakistan’s ambassador. Pakistanis indeed have the desire for peace with India but with honour and do not like to see that Pakistan compromises on its interests, including the core issue of Kashmir.

On his recent visit to Pakistan, not only Hindu extremists but Congress also criticized him for his outreach to Pakistan. Of course, apart from his constituency of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and extremist organisations, he has another constituency i.e. the corporate sector. In case there is turmoil and violence in India due to Hindu extremists’ despicable acts like killing Muslims on the pretext of slaughtering cows or converting minorities by force, unrest in Kashmir due to repression and oppression, and skirmishes on the Indo-Pakistan border, the corporate sector will withdraw its support to Modi. Thus, he faces a dilemma; if he continues to facilitate and promote corporate interests, it will create unrest among the great majority of the people living below the poverty line, as the fruits of the Indian growth rate are not reaching the grass roots level. On the other hand, if he neglects corporate interests, foreign investment will not come.

Modi’s pragmatism is obvious from his address to Afghan parliament and then his visiting Pakistan. This all appears to be an effort to appease the pro-Ashraf Ghani lobby in Kabul to get India a role and relevance in the Afghan imbroglio. Narendra Modi has realised that Pakistan will not beg for talks whereas the US and the west do not wish to see tension between two nuclear states. He also understands that without Pakistan’s cooperation there will be no transit trade to Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics. Though the US, Russia and European countries’ governments eye the $ 100 billion allocation by India for enhancing its nuclear arsenal and also to buy conventional weapons, they are concerned about the treatment meted out to the minorities, which could lead to turmoil and violence. Narendra Modi is now trying to improve his tarnished image because war mongering hinders economic activity.

Narendra Modi stopped over in Kabul to inaugurate the Afghan parliament building that had been constructed by India at a cost of $ 90 million. He also addressed the two houses and, perhaps to showcase his sincerity, he said that he saw Pakistan as a “potential bridge between South Asia and Pakistan”. While referring to terrorism, he did not single out Pakistan but mentioned both sides of the border i.e. Afghanistan and Pakistan. This seems to be a good change. India and Pakistan have had many rounds of talks in the past, including the composite dialogue, but no progress could be made on issues like Kashmir, Sir Creek, Siachen and building large reservoirs on Pakistani rivers. Since India has expressed its willingness to discuss all outstanding issues, including Kashmir, the days ahead will show Narendra Modi’s sincerity for peace.

The future of South Asia — inhabited by more than 1.8 billion people — will be either as an engine of growth for the rest of the world and prosperity of its people or the region will be marred with threats of war and people living in trepidation and fear. This depends on the leaderships of the countries in the region. There is indeed a common desire of these countries to open a new chapter of Asian prosperity where the teeming millions living below the poverty line, especially in South Asia, can benefit from economic partnership and also improve the living standards of their people. It has to be mentioned that the European Common Market was formed by six countries. Later, the European Union came into being by the countries that had fought many wars including 100-year war that resolved their disputes. Narendra Modi has to be consistent in his policy towards Pakistan as India stands to gain because of its strong industrial base.

The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at mjamil1938@hotmail.com