It turns out that the IMF will need more than a rollback of controversial subsidies to resume the bailout program. Reports in sections of the press, not contradicted by the government so far, have revealed that the Fund will also wait to see the government’s expenditure and revenue targets in the June 10 budget before making up its mind. The government is no doubt reluctant to go all in all at once as far as IMF’s “prior conditions” are concerned, especially now that it feels trapped because there’s not enough time to carry out all the reforms and show results before the election; even if it is held a year or so down the road. The previous PTI government is often criticised for stalling the IMF program time and again. But, to be fair, all such problems–except the last one when Imran Khan introduced the subsidy in February–erupted because the former PM did not want to put too much burden on the people too soon. IMF, on the other hand, wanted all the conditions in place before greenlighting the money and hence, the repeated breakdowns. But now we’re at a point where such back and forth cannot go on. Friendly countries have also associated further lending with the resumption of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and no other International Financial Institution (IFI) will lend either till the Fund does, so we really have only one option. No IMF program means no more loans and a definite default in the next couple of years when Pakistan will have to make debt repayments in excess of $30b. So, it’s all down to the budget. PML-N will either follow the IMF script to the letter and get all the loans, at the cost of savage attacks by PTI and growing public anger, or it will put its foot down and leave the government, passing the buck on to the caretaker setup. *