Despite the tense headlines, there are only two tough decisions that the government needs to take right now; and they’ve given it more sleepless nights so far than anybody had anticipated. One, of course, is when to drop the petrol bomb by withdrawing the Rs 100b-a-month subsidy that’s keeping prices capped. The problem there is not so much the present opposition as the people to who they sold the inflation narrative when the PDM was trying to dislodge the PTI government. Sure, the PTI will milk it for what it’s worth, but the government fears that doing it too quickly might alienate the people too soon into the new administration. On the other hand, not doing it will kill the IMF program, disrupt all sorts of foreign borrowing and possibly trigger a debate on declaring a moratorium on the national debt. So it’s more a question of when, not if, this tough decision should be taken. And two, when to call the election. Here, the problem is precisely Imran Khan’s newfound momentum. Time was, not long ago, when PML-N wanted an immediate election after the no-confidence motion but PPP wanted all assemblies to complete their terms. But now, the PML-N seems to have had a change of heart as well because of the kind of numbers Imran is commanding at his rallies. And the last thing they want right now is to invite the kind of embarrassment that will no doubt come if they call a snap election and go on to lose so soon after forming the government. There’s also another problem with an election in the next few months. It would no doubt force an expansionary budget out of the present setup; to give the people something to think about when they go to the polls. But that will surely beat what little life is left in the economy out of it as well. Because any more incentives in the budget will definitely end all negotiations with the Fund and send the Extended Fund Facility to an early grave. So the economy, as well as the market, would like the present setup to last at least another year. It was most likely these two things that Shahbaz had to fly his cabinet to London and meet Nawaz for. It seems everybody’s agreed to go ahead with the price hike. Finance Minister Miftah Ismail pretty much telegraphed the decision, even the markets factored it in, but then the PM decided against it at the last minute, for now. But nobody’s quite certain about the fate of the next election just yet. *