Daily Times

Donald Trump’s steady march towards the Republican Party’s nomination for the top job in the US has been viewed by most of us with disbelief. His rise is perplexing. Other than the fact that he is a billionaire business tycoon who converted a relatively small, inherited fortune into a large one, there are very few redeeming qualities, personal or public, that he possesses. He is not very articulate, even when he is not downright boorish. He is, by no means, a charismatic or electrifying presence, and, most importantly, he has no legislative experience. Not that one must be judged by one’s forebears, but one must still mention that his grandfather, a German immigrant to the US, was once a brothel keeper. So here we are, befuddled at the rise of a man, who really should have exited from campaign some time ago.

Some in Pakistan have compared him to Imran Khan with some justification, but the differences between the two men are just as obvious. It is true that both men have mobilised the hitherto apolitical sections of American and Pakistani societies respectively. Yet, while Khan can, at times, be almost as nauseating and foul mouthed as Trump is, Khan is, surely, charismatic because he was the country’s foremost celebrity for decades, and his record in public service, health and even education, is second to none. Perhaps, the biggest difference, however, is that Khan is a long way from getting anywhere close to the Prime Minister House in Islamabad. Trump stands on the verge of not just Republican nomination, but actually holding the most powerful elected office on the planet.

The common refrain is that the collective wisdom of American people will never allow a person like Donald Trump to become the President. His rivals, however, do not inspire confidence. Senator Ted Cruz might be in striking distance of Trump, but the map does not look good for him. In Florida, the contest is actually between Trump and Marco Rubio, with Cruz running third. This means that the 100 delegate gap between Trump and Cruz is likely to increase further. If the Republican leadership was to act and rally around Cruz right now, they could possibly muster up an anti-Trump coalition, within the party. The problem is that the Republican leadership hates him almost as much as they hate Trump. Their preferred candidate has been Senator Rubio, and they are still betting on Rubio pulling a miracle on March 15, when the Republican voters take to the polls in Florida and Ohio. There is another reason why the Republican leadership is wary of coming out full force against Trump. After Dr. Ben Carson’s emphatic endorsement of Trump’s candidacy, they are beginning to realise that only he can actually defeat the Democrats in the November election. This is because of the previously apolitical voters; which Trump has successfully mobilized. To beat Hillary Rodham Clinton would require all of the Republicans to unite and then some. Blocking Trump would not achieve that, as it would probably alienate millions of enthusiastic Trump supporters lining up in the primaries. This is too important an election for the Republicans to win. The Supreme Court seat, lying vacant as a result of the conservative Justice Scalia’s untimely demise, is also at stake. This is why the Republican Party will do all it can to block President Obama’s nomination to that seat this year.

What attracts these voters to Trump? Much of this has to do with the extremely successful propaganda that the right wing in the US has been carrying on, against President Obama, in the last eight years. By portraying him voraciously, as a socialist and a closet Muslim, a hysteria has been created that liberals in America are changing the very nature of American society, and its perceived American values; including the religious demographics of its Christian (and predominantly white) majority. This right wing wants to turn back the clock and take America back to being the place it was, before its first African American President with the middle name Hussain and a last name that rhymes with Osama began “changing” it. This is why, when Trump says “Islam hates us”, he resonates with his voters. A substantially large section of American population believes that a great majority of Muslims around the world hate them, and, the one percent Americans, who happen to follow Islam as a faith, are actually planning on taking over the US, and imposing Sharia on it. Muslim, itself, has become a derogatory term in the US; denoting derision and evoking hate, ironically, very similar to how our own extreme religious right wing in Pakistan uses the word Qadiani or Mirzai for the Ahmadis. The parallels are striking.

Obviously, hatred for Muslims and other migrants alone is not what is fuelling Trump’s rise. The economic recovery in the US has not reached down to everyone, and certainly, not that section of American society, which comprises the blue collar workers of the American “rust belt”, and, people who have not gone to college. They view with trepidation, the rise of economic powerhouses in Asia like China and India, which they see as steadily taking their manufacturing jobs away. Trump’s rivals, both amongst Republicans and Democrats, have little to offer. On the Democrat side, Sanders has captivated the left leaning Americans with socialism. To the average American, socialism remains a dirty byword for big government and economic control. It was this ideology that Carson alluded to, whilst endorsing Trump; stopping short, only, of conflating the entire Democrat Party with the Chinese Communist Party. This places Clinton in a tough spot. On the one hand, she has to veer left to ensure that Sanders’ supporters have finally come around to voting for her. On the other hand, she knows that she cannot go too left because it would alienate many of the independents, at the time of the general election in November.

The upshot is that, in my view, the Republican leadership will ultimately back Trump, no matter how abhorrent they find him. There is a real danger that once it happens, Trump will beat the Democrat nominee with relative ease. There are other reasons, too, to think that the Republicans will win the presidency this year. With the exception of Bush senior’s victory in 1988, neither party has managed to hold the White House for more than eight years since Harry S Truman. Therefore, we must brace ourselves for President Trump taking office early next year. For the first time in a very long time the Republican right-wing will control both the legislature and the executive wing, and the consequences of that will be felt around the world. Let us hope that I am ultimately proven wrong.

The writer is a lawyer based in Lahore and the author of the book Mr Jinnah: Myth and Reality. He can be contacted via twitter @therealylh and through his email address yasser.hamdani@gmail.com