It’s now pretty much confirmed that the coming quarter or so will see the economy stagflate – high inflation, low growth – since the record high cutoff yields for T-bills, which raised the spectre of another aggressive interest rate hike in just a few days, were followed by a report of the finance ministry that cut GDP growth for the ongoing fiscal down to 4pc. International financial institutions (IFIs) like IMF and the World Bank had been predicting just such a figure since practically the start of the fiscal year, but the previous PTI administration insisted that it would settle somewhere near 5pc. And now, of course, PML-N will say that it’s all PTI’s fault for killing the economy and PTI will shoot back that everything was fine till the “imported government” messed it all up; and so the pendulum will keep swinging. All this is very bad news, especially since the IMF program is still in deep freeze. It’s also too soon to tell if anything substantial has been agreed with the Saudis, even though we’re still in the middle of the program that the PTI government negotiated with them. Still, the fact that we need a lot more money, and on much better terms, has had the rumour mill going full speed since the Pakistani delegation flew to Saudi Arabia a couple of days ago. The number-one problem is the same as it’s been for decades; that our export earning is not nearly enough to support the current account, bolster the rupee, create employment and drive the economy forward. And now our old habit of borrowing from the central bank when nothing else works is also off the table with the SBP amendment bill that IMF forced everybody to sign on. There’s also the very uncomfortable fact that inflation hasn’t yet plateaued, which means more rate hikes down the road and more businesses, just like consumers, gasping for breath. The first thing such situations demand is national political unity so that everybody can work in the interest of the people and the country. Unfortunately that, too, is not on the table. Only painful stagflation is. *