If persistent inflation isn’t bad enough from the point of view of the people, another great problem is that conflicting narratives from the government make it very difficult for them to plan their rationing for the future. Sometimes the government admits that rising prices are indeed a very big problem, yet at others it also claims, very wrongly, that inflation in Pakistan is among the lowest in the region if not the whole world. And when it does accept its presence and persistence, it doesn’t quite know the real reasons for it. First a whole host of things were responsible for it, but never the government. However, just as a consensus seemed to emerge around international commodity prices lately, it also didn’t last very long with the information minister and a few others blaming organized mafias once again. And so the cycle goes on. But that’s not all. Every few months the finance ministry says global commodity prices will come down in about a quarter or so, which will also bring down domestic prices, but that never happens and people are treated to the same argument all over again. The latest such contradiction is that after promises of some relief, the finance ministry has yet again forecast ‘further hike in inflation’ for January. And even though government economists are more or less agreed that it would be around 13pc for the month, the ministry’s report skipped the number to try and save face by keeping people in the dark. But for how long? The Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) will still publish the number of Feb1, so why hide it in the first place? There’s also talk, once again, of relief packages for common people to shield them from this new wave of inflation. Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin is said to be mulling things like fuel cards for motorcyclists, increase in the minimum taxable income threshold, and even getting the private sector to offer internship programs for new entrants as well as plots for their employees; all of which are non-starters. The fuel card makes very little sense in light of monthly increases in petrol price on account of the petroleum levy, not to mention that brent Crude is now past $90 per barrel in the international market with too many things pushing it up to expect major downward movement anytime soon. There’s no way to fiddle with the taxable income because the IMF wants it pushed further down, not up, so that’s as close to impossible as possible while the bailout program lasts, at least. And the private sector cuts costs during monetary policy tightening, so how’s it going to volunteer to share the government’s burden, especially at this time? Practically all the finance minister’s big promises, like no mini-budget, no fiscal tightening, etc, have proved false so far. Therefore, the people should be forgiven for taking his latest smart ideas with a pinch of salt. *