It could be said that the mini-budget stabilised the rupee but only if stability means halting a very steep decline. Other than that, there hasn’t been much to write home about, and the best that can apparently be hoped for is that it will not drop any further anytime soon. Yet exchange companies are now complaining that the sudden re-imposition of 16 per cent withholding tax on them, and subsequent notices worth hundreds of millions of rupees sent to them, could well push the dollar to somewhere around Rs200 because they very much intend to pass the burden on to their customers. This, then, is just another one of those examples when a crucial policy decision was taken without consulting or even educating key stakeholders. The withholding tax was first imposed in 2014, then withdrawn in 2016 and now, after being re-imposed, there is already talk of the FBR cancelling it once again because dealers have made it clear to the Bureau that they will have none of it and simply pass the burden down the pipeline. The currency market is volatile enough as it is, and adding to uncertainty like this could well do more damage than can be made up for in a long time. Already the “grey market has taken a big chunk of our business,” complained the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan to the press, fearing that the withholding tax could even make the black market replace the legal business of exchange companies altogether. The money market is the preserve of the central bank. Yet here we have a situation where the FBR, an arm of the finance ministry and hence from the world of fiscal policy, is playing a part in spooking the local currency and scaring away investors. At a time when the government is facing severe pressure because of the complete failure to protect the rupee, such steps can cause harm all around. There is a very urgent need not only to bring sanity to the dominant narrative about policy and currency but also to sort out elements that cause such volatility and confusion. *