Libya is less than a month from elections seen as crucial to ending its long-running civil war, but deep political divisions could provoke a delay or even fresh violence. In theory, the North African country is preparing to move beyond a decade of conflict since the 2011 overthrow of longtime dictator MoamerKadhafi in a NATO-backed uprising. Western officials have talked up a UN-led peace process and insist on “inclusive” and “credible” elections starting on December 24, despite serious disputes over how they should be held. Libya’s electoral commission has said it is ready to organise the process and has published an initial list of candidates and handed out voting cards. The United Nations has said that nine international organisations have sought accreditations to observe the conduct of the vote. But despite a year of relative calm since an October 2020 ceasefire, Libya’s deep political divisions remain. Analysts warn that violence could easily flare again, with camps around eastern military chief KhalifaHaftar and the eastern-based parliament still mired in bitter disputes with a rival camp in the western capital Tripoli. “The electoral process imposed by the parliament is so fragile, incomplete and dysfunctional and institutions in Tripoli are so eaten away by political factionalism that the dynamics of violence and polarisation are bound to come back before December 24,” said Libya expert JalelHarchaoui. “That’s almost certain, even assuming that the vote somehow takes place.”