The government of Ashraf Ghani in Kabul crumbled sooner than expected. The departure of the very forces that temporarily expelled both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda 20 years ago has come as a massive morale boost to anti-Western Jihadists all over the world. The withdrawal of US troops will affect Pakistan greater than any other country of the region by aggravating instability on both sides of the Durand Line. Pakistan paid the heaviest price on account of Afghanistan conflict, and has lost about USD150 billion and approximately 70,000 human lives. Pakistan is probably the only country in the world that hosted three million Afghan refugees and does not have either the economic muscle or the space to host more. This will not only slow down the progress of development works of CPEC and Gwadar Port, but would adversely upset the political, economic and psycho-social makeup of the country.
Biden’s withdrawal of troops achieved nothing but a disaster. The sudden collapse will not only be a tragedy for countless Afghans consigned to Taliban rule, but will also leave a dark legacy that the US will not soon escape. What has happened in the last few weeks shows just how valuable the US deployment in Afghanistan was. The deployment was the critical factor preventing a long, grinding conflict from turning into the nightmare that will gradually unfold. Given the price of removing US troops, perhaps keeping them there would have been an encouraging bargain. Biden’s hope was that leaving Afghanistan would allow the US to focus on more pressing matters, at home and abroad. If events continue on their current trajectory, that dividend will not materialize. If the Taliban seize absolute power or consolidate control over most of the country, there will be geopolitical aftershocks from Europe to South Asia and beyond. The difficulty of preventing a resurgent terrorist threat will increase as America’s access to Afghan bases and territory decreases. There will be psychological ramifications as well.
China appears to diverge on whether the US withdrawal from Afghanistan presents more challenges or opportunities.
China appears to diverge on whether the US withdrawal from Afghanistan presents more challenges or opportunities. First of all, most Chinese analysts seem to be pessimistic about the outlook of Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. The process of power contest could easily drag the country back to another bloody civil war, leaving China vulnerable to its spillover effects, including that of fundamentalism and extremism. There is a shared view that Afghanistan will face an extended period of instability turning it into a breeding house of franchising terrorism universally.
Ideally, China would like to see a transitional government in Afghanistan followed by general elections to create a comprehensive coalition government. This would constitute the default definition of Afghan-led, owned, and controlled governance. China still holds out hope that economic development could stabilize Afghanistan, and would like to incorporate into the Belt and Road Initiative or even make it an organic addition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China understands that economic development in Afghanistan and regional integration will remain challenging after the US withdrawal. Nevertheless, this is a policy objective that Beijing will continue to pursue. However, Beijing fears that the United States, freed from its on-the-ground military commitment in Afghanistan, will use the country to undermine China’s regional position and key interests in the Af-Pak region.
At this juncture, Pakistan is witnessing an interesting triangular dynamic playing out. While the China-US competition arc is pretty much at lock, yet both sides are courting Russia. The United States continues to rally its allies and partners around a rules-based international order that portrays China and Russia as the “bad guys”. Washington retains its own share of leverage in relations with Russia, most notably a significant influence over allies in Europe, the most crucial theater of Russian foreign policy. Unlike the concrete alliances of the Cold War, modern alignments offer a much greater deal of flexibility, allowing Russia to pick its spots and simultaneously engage with both the US and China, instead of having to stick to one side at a time. The US and China, superior in total power and locked in a long-term strategic competition, will serve as the constant. Russia, meanwhile, will assume the role of the variable, seeking not to go toe-to-toe with the other two, but rather to utilize its leverage and manipulate the balance of power to its advantages.
Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan is a political reality that cannot be ignored. Pakistan’s geo-economic interests in Afghanistan are consistent with China’s aspiration to turn it into a regional trade hub. Chinese support of that reflects Beijing’s continued conviction that Pakistan has an essential role to play in the stabilization of the region. Besides, Chinese and Pakistani objectives in Afghanistan are aligned, if not identical. And that is particularly true in terms of countering India’s influence. However, the Taliban’s comeback in Afghanistan may galvanize Jihadi groups in Pakistan posing huge security challenges.
The writer is a retired Pakistan army officer. He can be reached at [email protected]