When a reporter asked Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) leader Jahangir Tareen about his intention of creating a forward bloc in the party on Wednesday, the estranged leader paused for a while and then responded in a very calculated manner that he was neither going to form a forward bloc nor had he formed a forward bloc. His close friends standing behind him grinned and then looked the other way. The reality, however, is that Tareen has formed his groups both in the National Assembly and the Punjab Assembly, and the postures exhibited by the groups are very provocative. His close friends have warned that if action against Jahangir Tareen is not stopped, there could be a massive political upheaval in the country. A close political associate of Jahangir Tareen told Daily Times on the condition of anonymity: “Jahangir Tareen has the backing of about 12 MNAs and more than 30 members of Punjab Assembly. If cases against him continue like this, the Usman Bazdar government in Punjab may be in danger and there will be political turmoil at the Center as well.” The truth is that the Tareen group has changed the political dynamics in Punjab. The public postures by 30 plus MPAs in Punjab cannot be ignored. Daily Times examined the current political situation and the stakes of the parties. The Buzdar-real power chemistry? The epicentre of the Tareen group is Punjab. Political commentators say the power corridors have long been against Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. According to them, Prime Minister Imran has been conveyed time and again by the powerful circles that Buzdar lacks guts to deliver in Punjab and is becoming a liability. Even PTI circles say despite the passage of now close to three years, there is chaos in Punjab and shockingly Buzdar is clueless. Despite poor ratings, Buzdar seems invincible in the PTI circle. Political pundits see the emergence of Tareen faction in Punjab as a clear-cut sign of the real power pressuring the Imran government to come to terms. The disgruntled members forming the Tareen camp have long been unhappy with the Buzdar government but they expressed their views under the Tareen umbrella. The power that be would love to see the change of face in Punjab and for this the new faction can aid their plans. Will Imran Khan, who has long been resisting the power that be’s demand, will cave in now? Only time will tell. In case of Imran Khan refusal, will the real power invite the PML-N to rule Punjab through a no-trust motion? A PTI leader from south Punjab said that the government has intensified actions against Tareen instead of showing restraints. “The MPAs standing by Tareen are not being given funds for their development schemes. Usman Bazdar also tried to win over the people of Jahangir Tareen group by calling them and in other ways also forced them to give up their support to Jahangir Tareen but he did not succeed.” Many political quarters of the country believe that the growing distance between Prime Minister Imran Khan and Jahangir Tareen, especially after the formation of a group of supporters in National and Punjab assemblies, can only harm the PTI and benefit the opposition, especially the PML-N. Where does the PML-N stand? The PML-N has on several occasions turned down PPP’s suggestions to remove the Buzdar government through a no-trust motion. Perhaps, the PML-N believes in solo flight when it comes to government matters. More importantly, senior PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah says the party is not interested in toppling the Buzdar government. The Buzdar rule suits the N, as his poor performance will give it a walkover in the next elections in Punjab. It is being said that the establishment is in talks with Shehbaz Sharif camp and once things get settled, the party will come up with a clear stance. The PML-N demands fresh elections in the country. PTI problems The formation of the Tareen group will unleash a floodgate of problems for the party as no party can afford the existence of breakaway factions. The number game in assemblies is obvious. The PTI will face problems in legislation, day-to-day business and more importantly, maintaining party discipline. Party legislators will see a chance in exploiting the party leadership on certain issues. The party’s core narrative of anti-corruption and anti-corrupt war can be compromised. The party can either stand up to the Tareen group or succumb to their demands. In case of challenging the Tareen group, the government may fall. What will be the public reaction to Imran Khan’s action has yet to be seen. PPP and PML-Q role The PPP has only seven MPAs in the Punjab Assembly and the PML-Q hardly an over dozen MPs. Despite having no significant number of MPs in Punjab, the PPP has time and again asked the PML-N to initiate a no-trust move against Buzdar. Now, after the emergence of the Tareen group, the PPP looked buoyed and again pressed the PML-N to move the motion. The PPP, however, cannot do any damage to the Buzdar government despite the presence of the Tareen faction. The PML-N holds the key to topple the Punjab government. On the other hand, the PML-Q, despite being an ally of the PTI governments in the centre and Punjab, is always open for talks when it comes to government formation. The PML-Q, if any no-trust move is moved, will weigh its options and decide about the future course after seeing the number game. The current situation also gives the Chaudhry’s of Gujarat a chance to get more and more from the Imran government. PML-N obsession with new elections PML-N leader and former senator Javed Abbasi says that Imran Khan has lost his majority and he should resign immediately. “Political parties realize that if so many members of parliament have left them or are announcing their separation, it means that their majority in parliament is gone. If it had happened in any democratic country of the world, the Prime Minister would have resigned. Imran Khan gives great examples of western democracies but they do not have the moral courage to resign after losing the majority. Imran Khan should resign,” he said in a TV talk show. Will the PML-N take benefit of the situation, especially after the formation of the Tareen group in Centre and Punjab? When asked, Javed Abbasi said Jahangir Tareen has not yet contacted the PML-N. “But if they contact us, the party will decide what to do. I think if the government falls in the Center and Punjab and there are immediate elections, the party should support Jahangir Tareen.” If there is no possibility of elections, the PML-N should wait and see. The coming months will be very difficult for the Imran Khan government. Prime Minister Imran Khan is already facing a lot of political challenges and now a group has emerged that can either stop or obstruct the PTI government from passing the budget. “I think there will be a lot of difficulties for the PTI government before or after the budget. A difficult situation has arisen in the country and it will continue if things are not settled within the PTI,” said Mubasher Bukhari, a journalist with years of political reporting experience. However, former federal minister and PTI leader Ishaq Khakwani say the gaps between Imran Khan and Tareen could be bridged. According to him, Imran Khan himself has assigned Barrister Ali Zafar to examine the FIRs and evidence registered against Jahangir Tareen and submit a report to him. “I think the government should wait for this report to come and also show restraint on the part of the Jahangir Tareen group. If both sides show restraint, this problem can be solved.”