Once upon a time, Pakistan was the fastest developing country in the region. Also, Pakistan was a peaceful country which was regularly visited by foreign nationals, continental ships, international airliners etc. Then, erstwhile Soviet Union decide to enter Afghanistan, perhaps to reach warm waters of the Arabian sea through Pakistan’s province of Balochistan. This particular action of the Soviets in 1979, not only led to its own breakup, but physically destroyed Afghanistan and peace in Pakistan.
Pakistan became home to over three million Afghan refugees who now refuse to go back due to better opportunities here. I do not blame them because all the regional and global power houses including Afghans, are responsible for the state Afghanistan is in for the last four decades. Unfortunately, Afghanistan was treated as a battlefield by the regional and extra-regional actors and not as a sovereign state. The poor people of Afghanistan were bombed and robbed, not only the invaders but their own war lords. Hence, they were forced to flee their homeland and take refuge in the neighbouring countries: mostly in Iran and Pakistan. Iran kept them in refugee camps, but Pakistan opened its doors across the country, and now its their third generation that is living in Pakistan. The political, cultural, societal, and economic freedom that they have in Pakistan would not have been available anywhere in the world, including Afghanistan. Therefore, it is natural for any human being to stay at a place where he can live peacefully and earn his livelihood for his family.
Perhaps for the first time, an effort is made to find a regional solution to Afghan problem and Pakistan is leading the way. Obviously, there is no other country, except Afghanistan, which is more affected due to continuing Afghan wars than Pakistan.
While Afghan stakeholders are still waiting for the implementation of Doha Agreement under which United States and NATO troops are to withdraw from Afghanistan, regional actors are busy discussing the way forward. In the given circumstances, this appears to be a viable strategy. However, regional stakeholders must be aware that several spoilers are active in Afghanistan because the exiting US and NATO, supported by India may not be very keen to see peace in Afghanistan.
Peace in Afghanistan is desperately needed for the regional integration and development, for which all the major players: Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are doing their bid. However, extra-regional players: US, EU, unfortunately supported by India may not be interested to see rising stakes and interests of its Russian and Asian competitors
Peace in Afghanistan would mean trade for Russia and Central Asian states via Pakistan and its vast warm water coastline. Peace in Afghanistan would mean Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline becoming a reality. Peace in Afghanistan would mean peace in Pakistan which may not be a desirable omen for India and the US. Peace in Afghanistan would mean expansion of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is highly undesirable for the US and India.
Peace in Afghanistan is desperately needed for the regional integration and development, for which all the major players: Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are doing their bid. However, extra-regional players: US, EU, unfortunately supported by India may not be interested to see rising stakes and interests of its Russian and Asian competitors.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visited Pakistan on April 6-7, 2021. This was the first visit by a senior Russian minister in nine years and came at an overly critical time. Pakistan has been cozying up with Russia for some time now. Pakistan’s efforts for an all-inclusive Afghan solution which is well supported by the regional nations, rather than extra-regional powers, seems to be gaining ground. FM Lavrov’s high level meetings were augmented by his call on to the Prime Minister Imran Khan and perhaps more importantly to COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is significant in cementing the defense ties. Russia and Pakistan have been conducting bilateral and multilateral defense exercises for the last few years.
International and Indian media has widely covered FM Lavrov’s visit to Pakistan and projecting it to be a beginning of a new era of relationship with Russia. If termed successful, Lavrov’s visit may pave the way for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maiden visit to Pakistan which was called off in October 2012. In the meantime, Indian analysts have started of a negative campaign about Pakistan’s potential interests in Russian Air Defense systems: S-300 and S-400. Indians very well know that Pakistan’s strength lies in maintaining and upgrading its Air Defense systems, which are key to its strong territorial defense due to geographical contiguity with its archrival India.
Perhaps, Pakistan is moving in the right direction and cementing ties with its nearby powers: China and Russia, instead of relying on already tried-but-failed friends located in far flung regions. It is India’s turn now to try friends located in far-regions: US, Japan, and Australia.
Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi is the author of the book ‘Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan’ published by Peter Lang, New York