IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) latest world economic outlook publication makes for some grim reading, and understandably so. All talk of a V-shaped recovery is now beginning to subside as international financial markets, just like most governments that were so far in denial, are coming to terms with the severity and depth of the recession that has now firmly gripped the whole world. Everybody is also realising how flimsy all comparisons to previous downturns are, which is why not many analysts are talking about the Great Depression last century or even the Great Recession last decade anymore. The reason is that previous recessions or depressions stemmed from systemic crises and failures, which means things went wrong within the international financial system. The problems were bad, but they could be quantified, and all that remained was figuring out just how much money to throw at affected sectors to get the world back on its feet. Now, the situation is very different. Now the economies have tanked because of something that came from outside the system. And economies will simply not rebound till some vaccine is developed to cure the coronavirus so all eyes, even those that want the global economy to pick up again, will be on the most advanced laboratories of this world as scientists indulge in a battle against time to find some sort of relief for the whole world. It is perhaps even more depressing that while no notable international financial organisation has yet been able to say anything about the chances of a global recovery with authority, they are pretty sure about what might happen to employment and poverty trends if things do not start to get better rather soon. And since we are told that the soonest a cure can be developed is one to two years, all the while global growth will be diminishing and poverty will obviously rise, there’s really no telling just what sort of shape the world will be in when things do turn around. All this does not bring much comfort to small, indebted countries like Pakistan. That is why we must be all the more careful in safeguarding our reserves and resources at this point, while we are still able to maneuver enough to save jobs and businesses. It would help a great deal if richer countries put any thought about debt repayment from poor countries out of their minds for a while, as the Fund has also advised, since it would free up enough fiscal space to wait out this pandemic. *