China-India standoff: Beginning of a new cold war?

Author: Munir Ahmed

Over a week of deep silence on the Galwan valley China-India border in Ladakh after a deadly clash on June 15 night that left 20 Indian troops dead in a physical fight. China preferred not to report casualties. Reportedly the situation turned serious on May 5 late and reached the peak – the physical fight on June 15. Both countries have blamed each other for violation of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Galwan valley, Ladakh – the disputed area between the two powers of the region for decades now. The tragic incident is said to have taken place between the border forces of two nuclear neighbours after 45 years.

India has cautioned China against making “exaggerated and untenable claims” on the sovereignty of the Galwan Valley area even as both nations tried to end a standoff in the high Himalayan region where their armies engaged in a deadly clash.

Responding to China’s claim to the valley, India’s foreign ministry spokesman Anurag Srivastava has said both sides have agreed to handle the situation responsibly. “Making exaggerated and untenable claims is contrary to this understanding.”

On the other hand, China has blamed India for escalating the situation by crossing the LAC and entering in their part of the Galwan Valley. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stated two days after the deadly incident that the Galwan Valley, which is part of the disputed Ladakh region, is located on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – the de facto border between the two Asian rivals.

Zhao accused India of violating the agreement the two countries had reached on June 6 regarding the LAC, calling it a “deliberate provocation” on New Delhi’s part. He said that “the rights and wrongs … are very clear and the responsibility rests entirely with the Indian side”.

China’s strong economic and defence strategies and capacity to reach out to different parts of the world with economic development agenda should not be the reasons for the US to launch another cold war in the region

Deep silence over a week now after the escalation on the Galwan Valley border between Cino-India. If it’s over or something more serious would be coming up and why? These questions are becoming crucial concerns for the eyes and ears of the region that is being termed as greater South Asia including China, Iran, Afghanistan, and some Central Asian countries. Up to a certain degree, almost every country in the defined region is fed up with the US hegemony that is being followed too by India to show off its muscles to be the ‘superior power’ in the region.

India’s over estimation of its power and consistently showing it off in the region is not clueless while the US has found its new enemy in the region and that is China. In the new scheme of things, Washington is not interested in direct combat and needs a powerful proxy in the region. India seems pitching itself as the only and strong bidder to the US. India is apparently showing its ‘power’, if it is, by committing violation of Line of Control (LOC) on the Pakistan-India borders, imposing severe lockdown in Indian Occupied Jummu and Kashmir (IOJ&K) and killing Kashmiris on daily basis. Possibly, India under-estimated the Chinese border force and tested their patience in the Galwan Valley, but it reacted badly.

The recent situation shows that China would not compromise on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) even if any country has some reservation on its road network and connectivity options. Though no one is happy about the loss of the human lives on the Galwan Valley border, some experts believe that China has given a rationally strong response to India that would curtail Indian hegemonic goals in the region. Speaking to a webinar organized by Devcom-Pakistan, some experts opined that India is aspiring to emerge as a US proxy element against China and other forces in the region. China’s response to India in Galvan valley Ladakh would strongly impact Indian aggressive plans in the region including to be accepted as a stronger force.

No doubt that India is on to support the US ‘curtail China’ strategy that would result in negative implications for the region. India can consistently engage China into armed conflicts on a comparatively longer border besides increasing violation of Line of Control (LOC) on the Kashmir border in the days to come escalate the situation to halt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The bone of contention between India and China could be the planned road from Ladakh to Gilgit-Baltistan that China is interested in for the sake of connectivity under the BRI strategy. So far, Pakistan has no objection to it but India because the latter has revised its country map including Azad Jummu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan in it. Extremely offensive and insane action. In the given situation from the Pakistan’s context China’s response is befitting that would not only protect the Chinese investment in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region but also help Pakistan for its strategic and development initiatives in the northern parts including Siachen. With the newly emerging situation on the high-altitude border, China would become a party to the Kashmir issue too. China has already raised voice against Indian atrocities in the IOJ&K. Iran is the other country that has genuinely shown their concerns over the human rights violations in the IOJ&K on different occasions.

The US-China economic conflict is flaring up with every passing day that would lead to a serious situation in the region where India would like to play its role against China. India still has the bitter taste of 1962 war with China in mouth and the recent misadventure has added more bitterness. This accumulated hatred would lead India to any extreme misadventure that would disrupt the regional peace. It could be provocative and intentional too just to halt the CPEC and other Pak-China development initiatives. The US support to India may not be unusual or unexpected.

This is for sure that whatever conspiracy theory the US and aides come up against China, they cannot beat economic stretch and trade until they have much cheaper labour than China and the capacity of mass production. Reports unfold that despite Covid-19 spread in China, the US market was flooded with the China made Personal Protection Equipment (PPE). Similar situation was seen in the western and Asian countries as well.

China’s strong economic and defense strategies and capacity to reach out to different parts of the world with economic development agenda should not be the reasons for the US to launch another cold war in the region. The like-minded countries need to come up with a combo of mitigation measures well in advance to defuse the hegemonic interventions in the region.

The writer is the Director Devcom-Pakistan, a policy advocacy and outreach think tank in Islamabad.

His email: devcom.pakistan@gmail.com Twitter handle: @EmmayeSyed

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