It’s been roughly two-to-three weeks since pretty much all of the world started relaxing lockdowns and opening up economies. And since the coronavirus takes about a fortnight to show in a new patient, the next week is going to tell how successful, or otherwise, this whole exercise has been. Markets have been largely buoyant, which has shocked most traditional onlookers, since major and minor economies alike have come out with some of the worst growth numbers and expectations in decades, if not forever. Investors do run for safe havens whenever US President Trump tries to ignite a cold war with China, for example, but largely the thrust has been pro-risk and towards optimism. Next everybody expects trade to open up even more so commercial earnings can resume, which is why oil has also steadied a little after the shock collapse it delivered about a month ago. Instances when market joy cannot be explained at all by fundamentals are very rare. This is probably one of those moments where markets are more desperate than optimistic. For every trader on the floor knows the cost of failure even if much of the world’s population is still ignorant about what could really happen if this pandemic is not controlled soon. If this opening up does not work, and the virus does spread even more than before, then everything would just have to be shut down one more time because of all the pressure the world’s healthcare system would come under. And that, in a nutshell, means an epic global economic collapse, mass unemployment at levels never seen before, and widespread social disturbance. That is why it is so important to make this work and why markets are rallying even at not-so-bad news when there’s no good news to factor in. That is also why this coming week is going to be so important. It will tell us whether or not all the optimism was justified. While everybody is hoping for everything to turn out just fine, there’s also the fear that opening up at this time might have done little more than just getting more people sick and dead. And, since it is important to prepare for the worst case scenario before taking any serious step, if such is indeed the case then practically all countries will have to turn their attention from economic revival to pure survival. But if things do get better and all the desperation really did the trick, then a phased return to growth could well be on the cards. The coming week will tell much. *