Social distancing measures, whether strict or otherwise, will likely remain with us until 2022 because the absence of a widely-used vaccine meant the potential still remained for COVID-19 to again wreak havoc on the world when it makes a comeback. A new study based on computer models by Harvard disease scientists and published in a peer-reviewed journal, Science, contended people worldwide might still need to practice on-and-off social distancing until 2022 to stop COVID-19 from again exploding and overwhelming hospital systems. It also said lifting social distancing measures almost simultaneously risks simply delaying the pandemic’s peak and making it more severe later on. The Harvard team’s computer simulation, which was published in a paper in the journal Science, assumed that COVID-19 will become seasonal, like closely related coronaviruses that cause the common cold, with higher transmission rates in colder months. But much remains unknown, including the level of immunity acquired by previous infection and how long it lasts, the authors said. “We found that one-time social distancing measures are likely to be insufficient to maintain the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 within the limits of critical care capacity in the United States,” lead author Stephen Kissler said. Widespread viral testing would be required in order to determine when the thresholds to re-trigger distancing have been crossed, said the authors. The duration and intensity of lockdowns can be relaxed as treatments and vaccines become available. To avoid the dire outcomes, on-and-off, or intermittent, social distancing measures might be needed until 2022. Precluding this outcome will be to increase hospital capacity or develop effective vaccines and treatments.