Daily Times

Pakistan and India have had a long history of hatred, animosity, competition, and conflict. The two countries have fought four full-fledged wars and countless border skirmishes

The expectation of a thaw in Pakistan-India relations from RSS-backed Modi is nothing more than a utopian dream

There was much hope of a new era of good relations, based on love, respect and cooperation, between Pakistan and India, when after assuming office, Imran Khan extended good gestures to India. But those good wishes were not reciprocated. The incident of Pulwama, in which 40 Indian CRPF personnel were killed, further exacerbated the already strained relations. The post-Pulwama political situation, especially during India’s general elections, shaped a new narrative against Pakistan in India.

While many in both countries were optimistic that once the general elections were over, India would change its narrative towards Pakistan, it was just a delusion. One can understand that intransigence of Indian political and military elite is hardened because of the overall emerging geostrategic alignments, political culture based on jingoism that emerged after the rise of the BJP in India, day-by-day, exacerbating security situation in the Indian-occupied Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, and severe ceasefire violations.

Pakistan and India have had a long history of hatred, animosity, competition, and conflict. The two countries have fought four full-fledged wars and countless border skirmishes. Thousands of people have died in these wars and ceasefire violations from both sides. This has instilled hatred in the minds of the general populace, especially those living in the border areas, while Kashmir, the bone of contention, still stands where Nehru and Jinnah left it in 1948.

Putting Kashmir aside, policymakers in New Delhi hesitate to even talk about other perennial issues like Siachen, Sir Creek, water, trade, ceasefire violations, human rights abuses in Kashmir, visa, and people-to-people contact. Despite the offer of good gestures from the Pakistani premier-tacitly backed by the security establishment-the recalcitrance of the Indian ruling elite is beyond the understanding of many. But here are some factors that might be stopping Narendra Modi from taking positive steps for changes the relations.

Pakistan and India have had a long history of hatred, animosity, competition, and conflict. The two countries have fought four full-fledged wars and countless border skirmishes. Thousands of people have died in these wars and ceasefire violations from both sides. This has instilled hatred in the minds of the general populace, especially those living in the border areas, while Kashmir, the bone of contention, still stands where Nehru and Jinnah left it in 1948

The expectation of a thaw in Pakistan-India relations from RSS-backed Modi is nothing more than a utopian dream. Contrary to the previous Indian general elections of 2014, this time the BJP contested on nationalism, exploiting national security threats, especially from Pakistan, and the dream of a Hindutva state. Modi had created an anti-Pakistan and an anti-Muslim culture before the elections. Despite many setbacks on the economic front, and failure to deliver what he had promised in the 2014 elections campaign, the recent landslide victory is a manifestation that he has succeeded in exploiting Hindus’ nationalistic and religious sentiments.

The growing fascism in India, which a member of parliament from Congress has also mentioned in her recent speech in parliament, will not allow Modi to take any positive steps for breaking the ice. With the emergence of Hindutva, it seems that the old narrative of ‘Akhand Bharat’ is finding no place in Indian power corridors. RSS jingoists have hijacked the BJP of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and any expectation of thaw in the relations seems a utopian dream.

Secondly, the regional geostrategic dynamics and overall international alignments are also impeding both countries to come closer. The power that has been dwelling on the shores of the Atlantic for last four to five hundred years is moving toward the shores of the South China Sea. Two blocs have already emerged, one led by the United States, and the other by China. Competition and confrontation between the two are inevitable. India has already aligned its strategic interests with those of the United States, and ha taken a major role in containing China in the region. Pakistan, being an old Chinese ally, would of course be on Beijing’s side. The US is heavily investing in the development of Indian military, striving to make India a member of the Nuclear Supplier Group, and building its navy to confront China in the Indian and the Pacific Ocean. The attitude of India and the United States against the Belt and Road Initiative and its flagship project CPEC shows that competition between the two blocs is going to be fierce. Though competition and cooperation can run simultaneously, in the case of Pakistan and India, it seems quite difficult.

Thirdly, cross-border terrorism and ceasefire violations will determine the future of Pakistan-India relations. India has always accused Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism in the Indian-occupied Kashmir. According to India, those terrorist outfits freely operate in Pakistan under the auspice of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. The Indian side believes that the real bone of contention is cross-border terrorism, not Kashmir, and that is why, many times, dialogues between the two countries have yielded nothing. Pakistani interlocutors have failed in convincing their Indian counterparts regarding the seriousness of Pakistan’s security establishment in carrying out actions against proscribed organisations.

Now the Indian security establishment is more apprehensive than ever; it is believed that when the Afghan war ends, Kashmir could be an attractive place for many jihadists to pursue their mission. Many in the Indian establishment are foreseeing the same situation that Kashmir experienced in 1989 after the withdrawal of the Russian troops from Afghanistan. The future of Pakistan-India relations would be dark if things happened in the same way. The human rights situation in Kashmir is worsening day by day. Dissenting voices of local journalists are being suffocated, while international media is not allowed to cover the real situation of the valley. The United Nations lambasted Indian security agencies in its recent report on the human rights situation of Kashmir. Social and political processions are not allowed. Curfew was imposed on the third death anniversary of Burhan Wani. Many, even in the Indian establishment, believe that India is losing Kashmir due to the policy of oppression they have adopted for the last 70 years.

The latest uprising started after the death of Wani, and it has been creating severe problems for the Indian establishment in managing the affairs of the valley. India holds Pakistan responsible for the post-Wani uprising, and if the situation goes from bad to worse in the near future, bilateral relations will be more negatively affected.

These are crucial factors shaping the future of Pakistan-India relations. In the given circumstances, there are very little chances of a breakthrough. It can happen only if the leadership of both the countries brings a paradigm shift in their strategic culture, keeping political and strategic compulsions apart, and think of a better life for the future generations of both the poverty-ridden countries.

The writer is a freelance columnist