Daily Times

U.S.’s peace envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, is visiting China to address Beijing regarding the latest gains which Washington has made concerning the Afghan peace process.

The visit comes as Washington has concluded another round of dialogue with the Afghan Taliban in Doha, Qatar. A few weeks ago, the Afghan Taliban leadership visited China to discuss the future of the ongoing negotiations with the U.S. The visits of the Afghan Taliban and the US leadership to China are an indication of Beijing’s growing clout in the Afghan peace process. It’s clear that an agreement between the Taliban and the U.S. is not likely to ensure peace in Afghanistan unless regional states, particularly China commit resources and support to Afghanistan’s reconstruction.

That’s exactly what the Taliban are looking to achieve. The group has expressed hope that European and Asian countries including Japan will serve as guarantors to make sure that the United States will withdraw from Afghanistan when Washington and the Taliban agree on a pullout. “According to the draft which we are going to agree (on, the) draft … and the agreement will be signed, and announced in front of the guarantors. I hope the most famous Asian and European countries will be guarantors. That will be decided by all sides. (Though) not decided yet, Japan is (an) important country, Japan may be there (as a) candidate,” said a senior Taliban leader.

Interestingly, this is the first time that the Taliban has mentioned the possibility of Japan’s involvement in the ongoing negotiations on a U.S. pullout. The suggestion of involving Japan in the peace process shows that the Taliban want as many international guarantees as possible to increase their legitimacy and flush the authenticity of the deal.

Currently, the US and Taliban are negotiating the timing of a pullout and how to prevent terrorist activities in the country. After the recent, intra-Afghan dialogue, the Taliban’s senior leader also said that the group will implement the agreement after confirming that the United States has begun to pull its troops out of Afghanistan. In the presence of international guarantors from the East as well as the West, the US has no other option to abide by any agreement.

Afghanistan doesn’t have an economic base and war economy is likely to flourish even after the US’s withdrawal from the country. In this context, the support of China for the Afghan Taliban and other political groups is key if the country is to survive in the post-US withdrawal phase

It is important to note that the Taliban have outlined a democratic roadmap that eases many of the strict facets of Islamic law, stating that a post-war Afghanistan would follow the Islamic legal system, protect women’s rights, and ensure accountability for all ethnic groups. However, the Taliban’s position suggests that the group would not hesitate to attack U.S. forces in Afghanistan if the presidential election goes ahead before the agreement is reached. “Any sort of election under the occupation of foreign forces is illegal. We cannot accept that,” warned the group recently.

This should be seen as a setback to the current government in Kabul. It is expected that all future negotiations would evade the Afghan government, and take place between the contesting sides, which is the US and Taliban mainly, in the presence of mutually accepted arbitrators such as China, Russia, Pakistan, and the US. A few days ago, a four-party joint statement released by the US, China, Pakistan, and Russia on the Afghan peace process emphasized that “All sides welcomed recent positive progress as the crucial parties concerned have advanced their talks and increased contacts with each other. All sides also welcomed intra-Afghan meetings held in Moscow and Doha.” The US’s special envoy for Afghanistan in a Twitter message said that “The four sides exhilarated all parties to take steps to decrease violence leading to an inclusive and enduring ceasefire that starts with intra-Afghan negotiations.”

Another reason for the Taliban’s push to include a broad regional and international support base for the ongoing peace negotiations is driven by the country’s bad economy which is going to depend on foreign financial support after the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Afghanistan doesn’t have an economic base and war economy is likely to flourish even after the US’s withdrawal from the country. In this context, the support of China for the Afghan Taliban and other political groups is key if the country is to survive in the post-US withdrawal phase. Moreover, involving regional states will ensure that all domestic ethnic groups in Afghanistan abide by the signed deal which has hardly been a case in the past. It’s important to note that Afghanistan remains a divided country on ethnic and political lines and the U.S. withdrawal is going to only precipitate power struggles in the country if stakes are not built for all major tribal and ethnic groups in the process. Therefore, involving states with pockets of influence in the country in the process will only the deal sustainable.

The writer is a MA, Dunelm