Daily Times

After the Treaty of Westphalia (1648), the world saw a period of sustained peace, development, progress, respect for human rights and globalization.

However, a few states started pursuing hegemony. This led to catastrophic wars.

The period between 1945 and 1979 was again marked by multilateral co-operation in trade and human development. The US triumph in the Cold War against the USSR allowed the former to try to coerce other nations with impunity.

The US and Iran are now beating the war drums in the Persian Gulf.

The recent events, including an attack on an oil tanker in the Arab Gulf and shooting down of a US unmanned Global Hawk by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, have caused a dangerous situation. The US has augmented its presence in the region by sending 2,500 additional troops; intensified Iran’s economic strangulation and plans to hit certain areas in Iran.

Iran can launch an attack from any side, hurting US interests and lowering its international prestige

The US is perplexed as Iran can launch an attack from any side, hurting its interests and lowering its prestige. Iran can target American vessels passing through Strait of Hormuz. Iranian missiles can strike against US forces. Iranian-led militias can target US personnel and installations in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.

Iran can also carry out disastrous missile attacks on Israel and its occupied territories. To avert such outcomes, the US and Israel are planning pre-emptive aerial strikes to neutralise its missiles its naval capabilities.

There can be numerous ramifications to this tussle. An insurgency like Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria might follow leading to proxy wars between Iranian and allied forces. Ethnic insurgencies in Iran could lead to a civil war. The Iranian government’s efforts could halt the normal flow of oil shipments leading to higher oil prices and, ultimately, a global economic recession.

Under the circumstances, urgent efforts are needed to avert a war. The UN secretary general’s proposal for an independent investigation of the attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf is a step in the right decision.

Moreover, the five parties in the P5+1deal, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany, should use diplomacy in pursuit of peace. They should ask Iran not to breach the pact and persuade US administration to ease the economic sanctions on Iran, allowing it to sell its oil.

They should also arrange a meeting to resolve the issue through talks. All sides should sit together for an agreement on missiles and arms-control regimes.

It seems that the Trump administration is divided on how to deal with Iran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, CIA chief Gina Haspel and National Security Advisor John Bolton are advocating war against Iran but Trump is looking at the 2020 US elections. Use of diplomacy to deal with this conundrum would guarantee him popularity in the upcoming polls. A war with Iran would lower his chances of winning the elections.

The writer can be reached at asadhussainma@yahoo.com