Daily Times

Recent attacks launched by Houthi rebels on critical installations have demonstrated a significant leap in their capabilities. The story of how Ansar Allah (the official name of Houthi movement) moved from small-arms ambushes to medium-range ballistic missiles and sophisticated drone attacks deep inside enemy territory in just half a decade illustrates how an ambitious militant group can capture and use state arsenals and benefit from foreign support.

With every passing day, the Houthi movement is proving itself to be a very tough military opponent of the government of ousted Yemeni President Hadi and his Saudi sponsors. 14 years of conflict have strengthened Houthis who are thriving under the conditions of war. Since the early 2000s, especially in the last four years of conflict, the Houthis have transformed from a small-scale rebel group warring in Yemen’s extreme north to central participants in perhaps the most significant regional conflict in the history of the modern Arabian Peninsula and the world’s deadliest war.

Today, Houthis are taking on and posing a great threat to the important infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, which is flush with Western weapons and oil money.

In mid-May, the Houthis’ drone warfare reached a new level of sophistication. Drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline west of Riyadh came as a great surprise to Saudis. The Aramco East-West pipeline, stretching across the country to the port and oil terminal at Yanbu, was damaged at two places as pumping stations were hit. The bold attacks showed Houthis had taken a different trajectory of economic warfare towards Saudis. In March, they had released video footage of a drone flying past Saudi’s al-Shuqaiq Water Treatment and Power Plant.

Houthis are not totally dependent on Iran to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia

Houthis were clearly sending a message to their big neighbour that they were capable of threaten their key installations. Moreover, through the use of re-engineered Chinese commercial drones, military UAV and militarised Qasef-1 model, they regularly harass the Saudi anti-missile systems. Saudi officials admit Houthis’ technology has quickly evolved from small, propeller-powered surveillance drones to larger plane-shaped model, named UAV-X by UN investigators, which can travel more than 900 miles at a speed of 150 miles-per-hour. This is really a matter of concern for Saudi Arabia as now Ansar Allah could strike at its core. There is a possibility that the next round of Houthis-Saudis conflict will manifest itself inside the Kingdom and to shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Ansar Allah has turned out to be successful in the raiding war along with Saudi-Yemeni border, where it has fought a Hezbollah-style guerrilla campaign against Saudi border forces. Houthi forces have achieved great tactical success against Saudi border posts through offensive mine laying on supply routes and Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) strikes on armoured vehicles and outposts. Houthis also have their own weapons production facilities. A number of small-scale military industries have been established since 2014 to support the war effort and maximise domestic reuse and production capabilities, in order to minimise the effect of the international arms embargo on the Houthi movement. A land-mine production facility was established in Sa’ada, for feeding distribution hubs in Sana’a, Hodeida, and Dhamar. In Hodeida, a drone workshop operates, drawing on a supply of rolls of fibreglass to make airframes. In addition to this, the Houthis have smoothly absorbed the new missile and rocket systems. Moreover, they now know these weapons’ effective deployment and launch through Iranian training and technical assistance. Houthis are no longer totally dependent on Iranian help to launch long-range attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis have also been strengthened by missteps by the Arab coalition and the Yemeni government. The Arab coalition’s negligent air strikes against previously unaligned tribes have given the Houthis new allies, ensuring constant supplies of new fighters. Rather than escalating the conflict to new heights, Saudis should engage Houthi and form a functional relationship with them. In this process, Saudis can seek help from regional countries like Oman, which have credibility and legitimacy.

Houthis have long signalled an interest in direct talks with the Saudis, rather with the Hadi government, which they know has a limited political half-life. Moreover, a significant number of Houthi leaders understand that a political accommodation with the great neighbour across the border is far more beneficial for their community’s survival rather than a relationship with a partner of convenience that is Iran, which is physically distant and has very few non-military resources to provide. Hence a Saudi-led diplomatic manoeuvre to engage Houthis directly would offer a much-needed, middle way to end this disastrous war, which is taking a heavy toll on Yemenis and threatening the stability of the whole Arabian Peninsula.

The writer is the editor of the geopolitical news agency Viewsaround