India’s dream to reach Central Asia remains hazy

Author: Col (R) Muhammad Hanif

Since the end of the cold war, India is struggling to reach Central Asia via a land route, still preferring to stick to the days of geopolitics rather than displaying flexibility to embrace the ongoing philosophy of geoeconomics. On the one hand India wants to draw huge investment and trade benefits connected with the Central Asian States (CARs), by using the shortest and much cheaper land route passing through Pakistan, on the other hand it wants to continue tensions with Pakistan over the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In this context, rather than starting a dialogue with Pakistan to end the tension by resolving the Kashmir dispute and joining the CPEC, India is bent upon crushing the freedom struggle in Jammu and Kashmir by the use of brutal force and constructing a much longer, costly, and time consuming route through the sea, Chahbahar port of Iran, then by road to Afghanistan and to CARs.

Likewise, while Pakistan is facilitating the efforts of the US and other regional countries to resolve the Afghan conflict by starting a dialogue with the Taliban, India wants to perpetuate the Afghan conflict by implicitly playing a negative role regarding the talks by misleading the Afghan government and the US, so that it can continue to destabilize Pakistan by using the Afghan soil. In this regard, India is making all efforts to create doubts in the US and Afghan government’s minds regarding Pakistan’s sincerity to bring peace in Afghanistan. In other words, rather than working for building peace in the region, to become an undisputed regional power in South Asia, India is playing Pakistan specific geopolitics. In this context, India is pursuing its anti Pakistan agenda of blaming Pakistan for supporting terrorism in the region, getting it declared as a terrorist state to undermine its nuclear status.

Moreover, to establish its hegemony in South Asia by discouraging China’s major investments in the infrastructure and other development projects in South Asia, India has not only denied to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), being financed and constructed by China, it is also opposing these projects. In this regard, India is also misleading the US on considering these projects of being a strategic advantage to China rather than recognizing these projects as being only the economic oriented aimed at bringing investment and trade benefits to South Asia and beyond.

In its Pakistan enmity, India has even failed to realize that its dream to reach CARs by using a route via Iran and Afghanistan will remain hazy as that route may not get operational for a long time due to the US tensions with Iran after cancellation of the nuclear deal, the related sanctions on Iran to stop export of its oil and gas to zero, and Iran’s brewing tensions with the US and the Gulf states over the Yemen crises

India’s opposition to the CPEC also clearly implies that it wants to impede the CPEC driven economic development of Pakistan. This also indicates that India is determined to undermine Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power and make it a compliant state by courting the US support against Pakistan, if possible, especially by exploiting Pakistan’s prevailing economic situation. In this context, India’s efforts to blame Pakistan for not doing enough against stopping terrorist financing and money laundering, at FATF forum are an indication.

In its Pakistan enmity, India has even failed to realize that its dream to reach CARs by using a route via Iran and Afghanistan will remain hazy as that route may not get operational for a long time due to the US tensions with Iran after cancellation of the nuclear deal, the related sanctions on Iran to stop export of its oil and gas to zero,and Iran’s brewing tensions with the US and the Gulf states over the Yemen crises. In this context, what to speak about speeding up the construction of the Chahbahar port by India, the US is asking it not to import oil from Iran. In other words, to carry on with its anti Pakistan agenda, India is opposing the CPEC by sacrificing huge economic gains of having trade with CARs through Pakistan by resolving the Kashmir dispute and joining this economic corridor.

In the discussed strategic situation in South Asia, it is considered necessary to suggest following. Pakistan should focus on strengthening its economy and it should activate its foreign policy to work for increasing its trade avenues abroad and also to find opportunities to send more man power to earn foreign exchange. Also, apart from depending on the IMF only, Pakistan should concentrate on creating its own funds by broadening the tax base and improving its tax collection system. While Pakistan should immediately start intensive farming in the agriculture sector, it should also focus on its industry to enhance exports through value addition. In the defence field, Pakistan has to be vigilant to foil India’s evil designs of harming it using its military power and the hybrid war strategies.

Apart from the above suggestions, it is also recommended that Pakistan should continue to make efforts for starting a dialogue with India to convince it that the path of dialogue, peace and cooperation is much better than the policy of confrontation. That, both the countries should make long term peace by resolving all issues, especially the Jammu and Kashmir dispute through a sustained dialogue and should mutually cooperate to jointly work for the economic progress and ending the poverty in this region. This would be possible if both countries end tensions for ever by resolving the disputes and India joins the CPEC to reach the CARs and it also enables other South Asian countries to join the CPEC through India so that all can reap the benefits of mutual trade and tourism within South Asia as well by trading with the CARs and the outer world.

The writer is an ex-Army Colonel, a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad and Senior Research Fellow, Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad

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