Daily Times

During April and May 2019, India’s general elections are scheduled to be held, to elect 543 members of the parliament (MPs). For the elections, the political parties have already started campaigning. While the BJP and Mr. Narendra Modi are aiming to win the elections to secure their second term in the government, the Indian Congress is endeavouring to stage a comeback at the national scene. There is also a talk of the emergence of a third front.

In 2014, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising of BJP and 26 other parties, with Modi as the prime ministerial candidate got a landslide victory in the elections to form a government for two main reasons. Firstly, the Congress had become unpopular because of corruption charges and the erosion of its governance. Secondly, Modi won the people by raising their hopes by making ambitious promises of reforming the economy and the creation of jobs.

However, Prime Minister Modi’s failing economic policies, and unpopular decisions like the demonetization of high-value currency notes and the rollout of a Goods and Service Tax, and his inability to create jobs, has resulted in his waning popularity as the state elections indicate. For instance, except winning in UP and Gujarat, in 2018 the party won only three of the 13 parliamentary by-polls, and 5 of the 22 state legislature elections. As per Money control news dated 7 January 2018, BJP lost its allies.

Prime Minister Modi’s failing economic policies, and unpopular decisions like the demonetization of high-value currency notes and the rollout of a Goods and Service Tax, and his inability to create jobs, has resulted in his waning popularity as the state elections indicate

In 2014, BJP contested 24 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra while the Shiv Sena contested 20 seats. While the BJP won 23 seats, the Shiv Sena won 18. Now that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has been broken, in 2019 general elections, there is a possibility of a Congress-NCP alliance, which could win anti-BJP, and anti-Shiv Sena votes in the state.

In the three Hindi heartland states- Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP lost to the Congress in December 2018 in the assembly elections, in which it had won 62 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Repeating that result in 2019 will be difficult. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won 71 MPs out of 78 contested in 2014, the BSP-SP alliance for the 2019 elections is expected to win about 40 seats, hence a 40 seat loss for the BJP is expected.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is no longer an NDA member and with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) also preparing to break away from the BJP, the party will not be able to win a significant number of the 42 seats in the two states. In Karnataka, the BJP won 17 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. In 2019, however, with the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) joining hands, it may be difficult for the BJP to win this number.

The BJP’s performance in 2019 in West Bengal (42 seats), Odisha (21 seats) and Tamil Nadu (39 seats) is likely to remain limited due to the influence of strong regional parties. The BJP has lost its allies, and has also failed to win new ones. Modi is also not as popular as he was in 2014. Hence, in 2019 elections the BJP will face a tough competition.

Witnessing their diminishing influence, Modi and the BJP are looking to find new ways to widen their support base before the general elections. For this, apart from exploiting the anti Muslim sentiment of the Hindu majority, Modi will also like to consolidate the Hindu-nationalist voter block by carrying out an anti Pakistan rhetoric and by staging another drama of a fake surgical strike.

The Congress has recovered its position by winning important state elections, in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and just fell short of an outright majority in Madhya Pradesh. In the 2019 elections, if the Congress improves its 2014 tally of 44 Lok Sabha seats, other non-BJP parties will align with it to form a coalition government in case of a hung parliament. However, without offering an alternative narrative of hope to the people, the Congress and its allies will not pose a credible challenge to Modi/BJP.

In view of the above discussion, it is estimated that the chances of the BJP and its allies, making a coalition government in the post 2019 election scenario are 45 percent. The prospects of a Congress-led government could be about 35 percent. The chances of a Third Front government are 15 percent. In view of these estimates, Modi has a 50-50 chance of returning to power.

Even a 50-50 chance of Modi winning, will diminish if the pre poll alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh wins about 40 seats out of 80, as this will be a big loss for BJP, since it had won 71 seats from UP in 2014. In such a scenario, Mayawati of the BSP will ask the Congress or the BJP to form a coalition government with a condition to make her the Prime Minister.

Published in Daily Times, January 23^rd 2019.