Daily Times

John Keynes, 1919 in his book “Economic Consequences of Peace” argued that “Treaty of Versilia” was designed to ruin Germany. Keynes, proved right, as Germany after some time hit back and World War-II was started.

Turkey was another victim of World War-I and was compelled to accept “Treaty of Lausanne”. Turkey had to withdraw from many territories, especially energy areas. The country also had to accept many obligations which were against its economic interests and proved to be hurdles in development. Turkey was not allowed to go for its’ energy resources and even could not charge any fee for Bosphorus Strait traffic. This impacted Turkey heavily and Turkey had to rely on imported energy, which increased its import bill. Turkey was also deprived of the good revenue from Bosphorus strait.

However, Turkey kept its cool and waited for 2023, for the end of the treaty. Turkey is now gearing towards the old dream and its realization to capitalize on it after the 2023 era. President Erdogan has signaled to reshape the region and to looks to regain the lost glory. He is trying to create a phenomenon which can be culminated into success for achieving lost glory. Furthermore, Turkey also has developed two other visions after 2023, the vision of 2053 and 2071. These two have been selected by keeping in mind the two major breakthroughs of the past, 2053 celebrates the victory of Istanbul and 2071 is to celebrate 1000 years of the decisive victory of Seljuk Turks.

Turkey’s ambition will give impetus to a new wave of realignments in the Middle East, North Africa and other regions. Middle East at the moment has two major rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries also enjoy substantial influence across the world within Muslim countries. Turkey will emerge as a new one but with different characteristics. Turkey is a relatively advanced country with a diverse economy compared to Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is the exporter of many products including electronics, defence equipment etc. It is also one of the major hubs of connectivity for passengers and energy transportation. More importantly its economy is not reliant on only energy resources.

Turkey’s ambition will give impetus to a new wave of realignments in the Middle East, North Africa and other regions. Middle East at the moment has two major rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries also enjoy substantial influence across the world within Muslim countries. Turkey will emerge as a new one but with different characteristics

However, the end of Lausanne treaty will introduce energy sector in its’ economy. It is expected that Turkey will actively strike to explore its energy resources and may will become a player in the market. Turkey is already eyeing natural gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean, which are believed to about 3 trillion dollar’s worth. Although there is a conflict regarding claims which has been made from other countries.

These are all factors which will lead to redefining the engagement of Turkey with other countries and other countries with Turkey. Pakistan will not be an exception. Pakistan will be in a very complicated situation. On one side, Pakistan has a very close relationship with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who have hit a bit of a rough patch after the killing of Jamal. President Erdogan openly criticized Prince Salman. Although Pakistan avoided the situation this time but next time, there maybe may be a different and difficult situation. Pakistan also enjoys a good relationship with European countries and the United Kingdom but recently Turkey has developed differences with them as well. There is a possibility that after the end of 2023, there will be a Bosphorus issue. It will also be a very tricky situation and Pakistan will take a position.

Thus, Pakistan should look into its engagement policies in the context of Turkey and its friends across the world. Although Pakistan and Turkey enjoy very close and brotherly relations but the changing dynamics will introduce new areas to be addressed by both countries.

Pakistan can start by devising a new framework for international engagement in the area of security, economic, defence and peace. Quaid’s words and idea can be the starting point, when he said, we want good friendly and peaceful relations with other countries. Rather than taking sides, Pakistan should develop a list of principles for supporting any initiatives or actions of the countries. These principles must be based on the moral and ethical values not self-liking or disliking. Pakistan already observed this policy in the case of Yemen and Syria, as Pakistan remained out of the conflict and did not take sides. It will help Pakistan to avoid any pressure from its allies and friends.

Also, we need to devise our economic policy and engagements in such a way that they are immune to conflict in coming days. Example can be taken from the Saudi and Canadian engagement in the energy sector. After the recent spat between the two countries energy sector engagements remain intact. We should tell our friends and brothers that economic engagements should be built without any reference to other areas.

To engage with Turkey in bilateral relations, Pakistan will have to come up with new ideas and skills. During the Prime Minister’s visit it was highlighted that both countries have a trade potential of 5 billion US dollars but right now the volume of trade is only 500 million US dollars. However, analysis shows that Pakistan never seriously worked to enhance its trade and products. Pakistan is offering products which do not have a market in Turkey. There is a need to study the Turkish market and then devise a policy.

Prime Minister Imran Khan and President Erdogan also agreed to develop a strategic framework for enhancing trade and investment. Pakistan must grab this opportunity by dividing its plan in two phases, pre-2023 era and post 2023 era. Moreover, Pakistan should try to understand the market of Turkey and look for commodities which can be exported.

Finally, Pakistan should invest in developing long term policies and a scenario for the future. New instruments of diplomacy must also be applied like digital space etc. In the absence of these timely measures Pakistan will not be able to tackle dynamics of foreign and economic policies, after 10 or 20 years. It is a good sign that the Foreign Office of Pakistan has formulated a group for the formulation of foreign policy and economic engagements for Pakistan, but we will have to wait to see how this group delivers or the government lets them deliver.

The writer is the Chief Operating Officer at Zalmi Foundation

Published in Daily Times, January 16^th 2019.